61. UCF

Someone’s going to surprise in the Big 12. Why not the Knights? Johnny Dawkins’ team had three eyebrow-raising wins last season (Kansas, at Texas and at TCU), which has me thinking this program could be in for more party spoiling. Because UCF isn’t appointment TV, it has one of the most unheralded (but reliable) duos in high-major ball.

Watch out for guards Jaylin Sellers and Darius Johnson. They combined to average 31 points last season and could hit the 35 mark this season. The strange thing here is there’s a bunch of guys on this roster who back stories that are longer than novellas (Mikey Williams, Dior Johnson, Benny Williams), but if the chemistry is in line, UCF will have top-half-of-the-league talent in the Big 12. And should the defense again rate top-30, like last year, then this outlook won’t be bullish.

62. Nevada

Wolf Pack fans found me with a quickness a year ago when I stupidly neglected to include Nevada in my top 101. (Steve Alford’s team was soundly in the top 60 of all metrics at year’s end.) No such mistake this year.

This is easily a top-70 roster. Alford is running it back with his three best at the 3, 4 and 5: Tre Coleman, Nick Davidson and KJ Hymes. Not many teams are able to claim the same. Look for Nevada to be in the thick of the NCAA convo because of its size and know-how. The backcourt of Tyler Rolison (big-time role increase) and Kobe Sanders (Cal Poly transfer) might take a little time to jell, but so long as they’re counterplaying off the gravity from the aforementioned frontcourt, Rolison and Sanders are going to have a lot of chances to capitalize with the spacing provided in Alford’s system.

63. VCU

If not for super-senior guard Max Shulga, the Rams would be about two dozen spots further down on this list. Shulga, who has spent his career with coach Ryan Odom, had a few weeks over the spring where he opted for a future at Villanova. But after careful consideration, he doubled back to Richmond and will be the focal point on one of the best teams in the A-10.

Putting it plainly: VCU has valid NCAA hopes because Shulga’s here. As a career 40% 3-point shooter, his leadership by example will be vital. Remember, the Rams went 24-14 last season and would have made the NCAA Tournament had they not stubbed their toe in the conference title game against Duquesne. Odom brings back three starters (Shulga, Joe Bamisile, Zeb Jackson) who also led the team in scoring, giving this group a realistic chance not just at winning the A-10, but at making up ground in the nonconference, where games and scheduling never come easy for VCU.

64. Northwestern

I count no more than three programs, max, that will have to overcome the loss of a player the way Northwestern will with Boo Buie, who graduated as NU’s all-time leading scorer. That aside, times are pretty sweet now in Evanston, Illinois.

Chris Collins guided the team to a second straight NCAA Tournament bid, which was previously considered a fantasy for a school with just three of those in its history. NU will drag some higher-end Big Ten teams into escape room-type scenarios at Welsh-Ryan Arena, where it’s had a handful of loud upset wins over ranked opponents in recent seasons. Key names back: Brooks Barnhizer, Ty Berry, Nick Martinelli. Barnhizer is quite the well-rounded player, especially when you consider how much time he spends on the floor (more than 90% of minutes last season) without having noticeable efficiency drop-offs.

65. Mississippi State

Chris Jans is the only coach in Bulldogs history to make the NCAAs in his first two seasons. (He’s the only coach to reach the Big Dance in Year 1, too.) It’s been a really good fit from the get-go in Starkville. The Bulldogs do have quite the makeover, bringing aboard six transfers and two freshmen. The best player back is one of the best sophomores in college basketball. Josh Hubbard averaged 17.1 points as a 5-9 combo guard in a defense-leaning scheme. Can’t wait to see how he follows up a delectable debut season. Hubbard is the guy on offense, while Cameron Matthews is the platonic ideal of a switchable 6-7 defender.

MSU figures to rank top-30 in defensive efficiency behind the captaincy of Matthews, who will be in the mix for SEC Defensive Player of the Year. I presume I’ll be lower on the Bulldogs than other preseason rankings. It’s not about Jans. Instead, it’s more due to the very likely scenario the SEC is a top-two league, in addition to my wait-and-see approach on the portal compilation in Starkville, which needs to prove its offensive capacity.

66. BYU

Most everyone (yep, yours truly included) was wrong a year ago when BYU was projected in the bottom half of the Big 12, only to see Mark Pope win 23 games and finish in the top 20 in advanced-metrics rankings. Now Pope is at Kentucky and Kevin Young — a longtime NBA assistant, most recently with the Suns — has made the pivot to the college game.

This will be one fascinating experiment, as Young is going to try to NBA-ify the Cougs while also adhering to certain structure and schemes fitted for college. Fortunately for Young, he was able to retain Dallin Hall, Trevin Knell, Fousseyni Traore and Richie Saunders, all of whom could have left but chose to keep on with BYU’s unique culture. It’s likely to be bumpy in Year 1, but the vision is to fund BYU and turn it into one of the top four programs in the Big 12 by the end of the decade. (Case in point: The Cougars are a major player for the top prospect in the country, AJ Dybantsa.) Young might pull a Pope and wildly overshoot expectations again, but I’ll give the Coogs plenty of slack in his first season.

67. NC State

What the Wolfpack did in March/April amounted to the most statistically improbable Final Four run ever. From trailing putrid Louisville in the first half of the first game of the ACC tourney to winning nine straight (which had never been done before) and making history in reaching the Final Four.

Will there be a hangover in Raleigh? DJ Burns, Casey Morsell and DJ Horne won’t be there to experience it. Kevin Keatts returns Jayden Taylor, Michael O’Connell and Ben Middlebrooks. Louisville transfer Brandon Huntley-Hatfield will step in and play the 4 and/or the 5 and probably be ecstatic to be in new surroundings. Last season’s team found a way to scout effectively, capitalize on mismatches (a lot of this was Burns) and never take stretches off in games. It will need to do this to maximum effect in order to get back to the NCAAs.

68. Ohio

Ohio is blessed to bring back six of its top eight players from last season. Senior guard Shereef Mitchell is the latest sturdy captain in the backcourt. Combo forward AJ Clayton  is one of the best 3-point-shooting frontcourt players at his level. He hit 40.1% of his triples a season ago. It’s the MAC, so the league tournament is far from fair to the top seed, but it’s probably rational to expect one of Akron, Ohio or Toledo to wind up winning the conference. With Akron losing too much firepower from a 24-win team and Toledo rebuilding half its roster, Jeff Boals’ Bobcats are my pick to emerge as the top squad in a quintessential mid-major league.

69. Wichita State

The Shockers were merely 15-19 a season ago, but it was Paul Mills’ first season on the job after doing a wonderful six-year stay with Oral Roberts. Mills brings back five of his top seven minutes-getters, which should convey an above-.500 season. Wichita State figures to get consistent scoring from guards Xavier Bell and Harlond Beverly, who lead a group that’s old-old. A lot of teams in this sport are veteran-capped, given this is the final year of the COVID bonus year, but Wichita State’s projected starting five will rank near the top in experience.

All five are fourth- and fifth-year players, and Mills will have three more battle-scarred seniors readily available off the bench. Projecting WSU as a top-75 team is a dart in the dark, but the program has the players and figures to have the coaching. Beyond that, the American Athletic Conference on average is able to put four teams into the top 75. Let’s give ’em a shot.

70. Arkansas State

The Red Wolves should supplant James Madison as the premier team in the Sun Belt. Arkansas State was so feared that Memphis and Alabama were the only two schools from high-major and/or multi-bid leagues this past offseason that agreed to play Bryan Hodgson’s team.

Hodgson, a second-year coach, has done an outstanding job after spending eight years learning under Nate Oats. Three starters return from the program’s second 20-win season since 1998. (A young Grant McCasland was responsible for the other one in 2017.) Taryn Todd and Derrian Ford are the notable guys back, but the spark plug should be Louisiana transfer Kobe Julien, who averaged 17+ last season.

71. Utah

Craig Smith has gone from 11 wins to 17 to 22 in his first three years in Salt Lake City. The task to get even more in Year 4 will be immense. The Utes lost Branden Carlson to graduation and Deivon Smith to St. John’s, which is going to be a big hit, as those were two of the 10 best players in the Pac-12 last season.

Now Utah’s in the Big 12. It returns Gabe Madsen, the only player back who was a double-digit scorer last season (13.2 ppg). Lawson Lovering and Hunter Erickson are also key returnees. Stretchy San Francisco guard Mike Sharavjamts is poised to be a difference-maker, and Baylor transfer Miro Little should also be featured in the starting lineup.

72. Seton Hall

The Pirates narrowly missed last year’s NCAAs (then won the NIT) and, even worse, lost Kadary Richmond to Big East rival St. John’s. Shaheen Holloway won 17 games in Year 1 and 25 last season. I think he splits that in ’24-25 and ends up with either 20 or 21 Ws. Dylan Addae-Wusu and Isaiah Coleman return; expect both to become double-digit scorers after combining to average 14 points last season.

Holloway brought on seven transfers, the most notable being an intra-league Big East swap of his own in Garwey Dual (Providence). The implied lack of 3-point prowess is striking. Without enough long-distance threats, it is hard to get the Hall higher on the list than this. That said, while it’s casual to underestimate this team, keep in mind Holloway’s one of the best do-more-with-less coaches in the high-major ranks.

73. Colorado State

Few folks in the media were as consistently pro-Isaiah Stevens over the past two years as your humble author here. Stevens stuck around in Fort Collins when he easily could have left in 2022 or 2023 and sought bigger NIL paydays. He guided CSU as a point guard with few peers (if any) at his level. Now that his college career is done, the Rams have to hope Northern Iowa transfer Bowen Born can facilitate and guide the ship.

It won’t be easy, but at least Nique Clifford (a multi-tool 6-5 wing) is back. Clifford figures to be a first team-type of All-Mountain West player. He averaged 12.2 points and that number is a stone-cold lock to inflate. Clifford was a down-transfer from Colorado who is a primo example of how moving to a lower level can vastly improve a player’s college experience. Niko Medved also brings back Jalen Lake in a starting role. Probably won’t compete for the Mountain West title but should be good enough to flirt with the bubble.

74. Princeton

I was on hand in Manhattan in March for the Tigers’ stunning 90-81 loss in the Ivy League Tournament semifinals to Brown. (Princeton trailed by as many as 22 in that game.) Coach Mitch Henderson was visibly and understandably furious in the aftermath. That aggravation should serve as a motivator, not an inhibitor, for the Tigers in what should be another very good year in Princeton.

Last season’s team was 24-3 before losing its final two games. Crucially, it returns shooting guard Xaivian Lee, who is the most talented player in the Ivy. But he wasn’t the 2024 Ivy POY. That would be Caden Pierce, who is also still wearing black and orange. Those two give the Tigers dependability, leadership and star power. If Henderson enables it, Pierce and Lee could rank among the highest-scoring duos in the country. Both are capable of averaging 20 if they want it.

75. UC Irvine

Russell Turner has built up one of the strongest mid-major résumés in the game. With a  289-180 record in 14 seasons, he’s finished half of his campaigns with the best team in the Big West. That should be the case again in 2024-25 because the Anteaters have four starters sticking around from a 24-win team that finished 82nd at KenPom.

It would come as no shock if this team wound up having a top-50 defense, too. UCI has won on the strength of its bigs in the past, but this group figures to carve its way to another 20-win year based on the depth of its guards. The two starters who should pace this group are Justin Hohn and Andre Henry — a duo that should wind up being the best 3-point shooting backcourt in the Big West.

76. Saint Louis

Few coaches have ever had bigger jumps in success in their first three years of Division I coaching than Josh Schertz. His first season at Indiana State was 11-20. Then he went 23-13 in 2022-23. Last season ISU made the NIT title game and went 32-7.

If not for an unprecedented amount of bid thieves, the Sycamores would have been in the NCAAs. And Schertz might be coaching at Louisville if they had danced. Instead, Saint Louis is the spot, and it feels right. This is a good jump and the type of hire that SLU fans can eagerly embrace. They’ve got a shot to once again have a relevant program in short order. A big reason is because Schertz brought MVC Player of the Year Robbie Avila with him. The lovable baller with too many great nicknames (Cream Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Nerd, Steph Blurry) instantly becomes the must-watch player in the A-10. Isaiah Swope (who sank 114 treys a season ago) also made the move down from Indiana State to be a Billiken. Schertz’s avant-garde offense combined with some shrewd roster-building provides instant credibility.

77. USC

Eric Musselman won 24 games in his first season at Nevada (2015-16) and 20 in his first at Arkansas (2019-20). Neither team made the NCAAs, and it seems more likely than not that will be true of the Trojans in their first year under Muss and in the West Coast-ified Big Ten.

A double-digit transfer load comes aboard, many of them one-year guys in a grad-school year. Led most likely by Desmond Claude (Xavier), it’s unclear just how well this group of ballers from Boise State, UMass, UC San Diego, Michigan, Northern Colorado and beyond will jell. Muss is right at home in SoCal, and if it hits, this has a shot to be the one job he sticks at for the better part of a decade. But it’s hard to see this assembly as a top-half Big Ten outfit.

78. Saint Joseph’s

After regularly rating in the top 100 when Phil Martelli was there, SJU finally broke back into that echelon again by finishing 99th at KenPom last season, Billy Lange’s fifth tour.

I think the Hawks can be similarly good, if not even slightly better, due to all-Atlantic 10 guard Erik Reynolds II playing one final season on the hill. Reynolds’ 17.3 points per game led the league, and teaming up alongside returnee Xzayvier Brown (12.7 ppg) will give the Hawks one of the best backcourt tandems in the A-10. Brown is a stud and could compete with Reynolds for A-10 POY honors. Rasheer Fleming is also back, giving SJU three starting players who stuck around and averaged double digits. That’s a luxury few non-high-major programs can claim in 2024.

79. TCU

It’s a reboot in Fort Worth for Jamie Dixon. The Horned Frogs figure to start four transfers alongside returning center Ernest Udeh Jr. Dixon will also have seven players on the roster yet to play a college game. That’s going to lead to piles of losses in the Big 12. Unavoidable.

I like the addition of Arizona State transfer Frankie Collins, who will be the head of the snake. He’ll be flanked by Noah Reynolds (via Green Bay) and Brendan Wenzel (via Wyoming). TCU is coming off its third straight NCAA appearance, which had never happened in program history. A step or two back in ’24-25 is almost certainly coming, but that’s no indictment on Dixon’s track record.