31. Texas Tech
Some might have expected the Red Raiders to drift into obscurity after the short-lived, disastrous end to the Mark Adams era. Not at all. Grant McCasland was the right guy at the right time. TTU went 23-11 and got a 6-seed in 2024 — doing so with an offense-first philosophy. It should be in that ballpark again in 2025.
Two critical transfers to know: PG Elijah Hawkins (Minnesota) and JT Toppin (New Mexico). Hawkins was one of the best pure distributors in college hoops as a Gopher. Toppin is a bouncy wing that does a little bit of everything and broke Lobo hearts when he left ABQ. Adding those two in with three guys back (Darrion Williams, Chance McMillian, Kerwin Walton) who combined to average 30-plus points gives the Red Raiders a sleeper’s chance at being a Big 12 contender. Devan Cambridge is also back, and on his way to being healthy. A lot of promise with this team.
32. Virginia
The Wahoos have made all but two NCAA tourneys since 2012, and I’m confident that broad track of success continues in 2025. But it’s time for UVa to get back to making its mark in March; the program’s last Big Dance victory was against Texas Tech in the 2019 title game. Last season, Virginia was a no-show vs. Colorado State in the First Four.
Losing Ryan Dunn and Reece Beekman early to the NBA (borderline priceless defenders) drops the Cavs’ ceiling and essentially forces them out of top-25 consideration heading into November. Virginia brings back shooting guard Isaac McKneely and his reassuring 44.5% 3-point accuracy. Big man Blake Buchanan is situated for a breakout year and he’s not going to be the only one in Charlottesville. The portal add who could be requisite to Virginia finishing in the top five of the ACC is a guy who was in the league last season, but barely made a mark. TJ Power opted out of Duke, knowing full well just how much talent was coming in. At Virginia he can become one of the breakout sophomores, provided he’s bought into the program’s defensive requirements.
33. Dayton
Anthony Grant is 135-55 in his last six seasons at UD, equating to a magnificent .711 winning percentage, the best in the Atlantic 10 in that span and one of the 15 best of any men’s Division I coach. It’s for that reason, above all others, that I will again forecast Dayton as the best team in the conference. The Flyers are the most consistent team in that league. There are some lowered expectations because of the loss of DaRon Holmes II, but UD fans have seen their team overcome significant losses of NBA-level talent before. Thankfully, Malachi Smith’s return from injury should inject renewed optimism in Dayton, going along with the return of preseason A-10 first-teamer Nate Santos. Santos, Enoch Cheeks and Javon Bennett are the support columns, but it’s the transfers that make me all in on Dayton’s return to the Big Dance. (UD is coming off an NCAA appearance as a No. 7 seed, which included a win over Nevada in the first round.) The Flyers brought in former Ohio State big man Zed Key and well-traveled defensive specialist Posh Alexander, who are both old enough to be voting in a second presidential election. How a coach schedules tells me how confident he is in his team. UD is not only going to Maui, but Grant also has Marquette, UNLV, Cincinnati and Northwestern on the schedule. These guys might not be as good as last season, but I think they’ll be relatively close.
34. Clemson
What encore is in store for the team that made its first Elite Eight in 44 years? The Tigers have a healthy chance at a fifth NCAA Tournament push under Brad Brownell (and it would be the first time ever under him that Clemson made back-to-back Big Dances) with the return of Chase Hunter at combo guard and power forward Ian Schieffelin.
Had PJ Hall come back, Clemson would have easily been a preseason AP Top 25 team. Without him, they’ll look to make up some ground and can get their bona fides on defense with Cincinnati transfer Viktor Lakhin. The Tigers will rely on Jaeden Zackery (11.2 ppg, 4.3 apg at Boston College) to be the primary 1-man. If he’s efficient, Clemson can hope to be in the realm of last season’s 117.7 adjusted offensive efficiency rating (per KenPom), a program-best number. I think the Tigers are a moving target in the ACC but am willing to give Brownell the benefit of the doubt and buy in on continued success and a top-five league finish for the fourth time in five seasons..
35. Saint Mary’s
Randy Bennett’s Gaels have won 26 or 27 games in four of the past five seasons, with the COVID-affected 2020-21 campaign being the exception. It’s fair to brace for a little step back here, as Aidan Mahaney left for UConn and Alex Ducas graduated. Josh Jefferson also decided to portal it out of there.
I love that Mitchell Saxen is here again for a fifth and final season, though. I’d rank him among the 15 best bigs in the sport. With Saxen and the 7-1 Harry Wessels making life hell in the paint, Saint Mary’s is again going to be rugged and not to be trifled with on defense. And sure, the Aussie pipeline is still flowing into Moraga, California, but Bennett’s also added a couple of Lithuanians to boot. Had Mahaney stayed it would’ve benefited the program, but SMC fans know that Augustas Marciulionis was the team’s better floor general anyway. He’s back for a senior season on a squad that is again going to firmly be No. 2 in the WCC behind Gonzaga.
36. Rutgers
Oh, nothing. It’s only the most anticipated season in Rutgers history. Steve Pikiell and his assistant, Brandin Knight, diligently worked for years to recruit two blue-chip studs — Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey — and here they are. Yes, Rutgers will suit up quite possibly two future top-five NBA Draft picks.
This is going to be fascinating, to say the least. Harper will run the offense; he’s the younger brother of Ron Harper Jr., who is one of the best players in program history. Bailey is a bouncy wing who might be the most athletic freshman in the country.
Those two won’t explicitly be tasked with being the leaders of this team, but from the outside in, that’s how it will be viewed. Harper and Bailey all but guarantee a big jump from last year’s putrid offense, which ranked 295th at KenPom. Harper gets the benefit of starting beside Jeremiah Williams, who started 11 of his 12 games last season after returning from injury. No one’s quite sure how this is going to go, and questions loom with RU’s interior defense, but few teams in ’24-25 will rank as high in watchability as the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. What a world. I like this world!
37. San Diego State
The Aztecs get a top-40 designation from me due to coaching stability and proven culture. This program lost a LOT from 2023-24: Jaedon LeDee (that one’s gonna leave a mark), Lamont Butler, Micah Parrish, Darrion Trammell. The best returnee is Reese Waters (9.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg).
A year ago, nobody had LeDee as a top-20 player in the country, but that’s precisely what he became. Can Waters make a jump that’s in that ballpark? He’ll get help with Miles Byrd, a stretchy wing who symbolizes a lot of what makes SDSU’s defense so firm year in, year out. One new name to know is former FAU guard Nick Boyd, who has a swagger on the court that will fit right in with Brian Dutcher’s program. Boyd might be good for a couple of 25-point nights, and in turn, could improve the Aztecs’ chances at winning yet another Mountain West title.
The MW will soon degrade, due to SDSU leaving alongside a few other teams. In these next two years, it should be a compelling battle for supremacy before this league is subdued — so soon after its best season in history.
38. Maryland
With a workable troop of fourth- and fifth-year players, plus the arrival of a five-star big man, the Terrapins can course-correct in a big way from last season’s letdown. Kevin Willard’s team was a confounding 16-17, done in by awful 3-point shooting and a stagnant offense. Look for that to change due to the arrival of Belmont transfer Ja’Kobe Gillespie (38.7% from beyond the arc) and South Florida import Selton Miguel (39%).
Maryland lost Donta Scott and Jahmri Young, but Julian Reese is back in the frontcourt and will play the 4 alongside freshman center and local high school hero Derik Queen, who ranked 12th in the Class of 2024 according to 247Sports. Reese’s defense should help Maryland rank well nationally in efficiency. I don’t know if Queen will be high-impact in the first six weeks of the season, but I think he rounds into form by February and gets Maryland firmly into the bubble mix.
39. Texas
The Longhorns’ shift into the SEC (this feels like it’s going to take some getting used to) is going to coincide with a big shift in the roster. A lot of old hands are no longer wearing burnt orange: Max Abmas, Dylan Disu, Tyrese Hunter, Dillon Mitchell, even Brock Cunningham (gone already? I jest) have moved on. That equates to 80% of the team’s minutes flipping for the season ahead.
Rodney Terry essentially has a rebuild on his hands, but at least he’s got a terrific freshman wing in Tre Johnson to do it with. Johnson is the sleeper pick to be the nation’s best freshman. Ranked sixth overall in the class, he was a big-gulp scorer as a prospect and figures to have a lot of touches on a team that will be looking for guys to step up on offense. Johnson figures to start alongside four other guys who are all much older and seniors/fifth-year players.
Kadin Shedrick is the most important returning UT player; he’ll hold down the 5. Arthur Kaluma is in Austin to chase the NCAA Tournament after missing out last year at Kansas State. Tramon Mark is back in the state after a one-year detour with Arkansas. Look for him to be critical as a leader for Terry’s team, which has some interesting pieces. I can see a way for Texas to make hay in the new-look SEC, but it’s likely going to be in the bubble mix come March.
40. Pitt
It’s hard to catapult season-ending momentum into the following campaign, but let’s see if Pitt can do it. I like the Panthers to be a bubble team after missing out (narrowly) on the NCAAs last season following a 10-3 finish and a 22-11 record.
Jeff Capel is now in Year 7, with one NCAA trip in the first six. Pitt’s AD was unexpectedly let go this offseason, which could put Capel’s job at risk if he severely underachieves, but I like this team to comfortably finish in the top half of the ACC and make the Big Dance. The Panthers have somewhat quietly moved into second-tier status in the ACC in the past couple of years. Will this group keep that going? The roster suggests a competitive team with a reasonable shot at winning north of 20 games again. Ishmael Leggett is a key player back, as is Jaland Lowe, who will be a pop guy in 2024-25, especially after Bub Carrington’s meteoric rise to one-and-done NBA Draft lottery pick. Lowe could follow Carrington’s course in 2025, honestly. Blake Hinson also no longer being here also dings Pitt a bit, but, but, but: The Panthers return four of their top six scorers, which is about as good of a situation as you can ask for at a high-major school that didn’t make the tournament.
41. Oregon
If you missed Jackson Shelstad’s freshman year, don’t make a similar mistake this upcoming season. Shelstad (12.8 ppg) is probably among the 10 best sophomores in the sport, and he’ll have a shot at being a first- or second-team guy in the Big Ten. (Still feels weird to type it, let alone read it.) Dana Altman was hoping to win an NCAA appeal to get one more season with N’Faly Dante, but that didn’t happen.
Who’s the big man to step up now? Senior Nathan Bittle, who will have to pop his 10.0 points/4.4 rebounds line from last season. After a one-year East Coast junket at Villanova, former Washington State wing TJ Bamba has returned West to suit up as a Duck. I suspect he’ll get north of 320 shots in 30-plus games. This is Dana Altman’s 15th season in Eugene. The previous 14 featured 20 wins or more. In fact, Altman’s coached 27 consecutive years above .500. Oregon might have question marks, but the track record mandates putting the Ducks comfortably in the top 50.
42. Texas A&M
I was absurdly high on the Aggies last season (we’re talking irrationally high), only to see Buzz Williams’ team pretty much perform where most others thought they’d be. A 21-15 record and a No. 9 seed. So: they were solidly solid, but a few matters short of pretty good.
Will this group be more consistent? Wade Taylor IV returns for his senior season, and after averaging 19.1 points in 2023-24 (fourth-best in the SEC), he’s got a chance to be No. 1 in the conference. A lot will filter down from Taylor’s production. Fellow senior backcourt mate Manny Obaseki will be inserted into the starting lineup full time, getting that promotion along with another semi-starter from last season, Jace Carter on the wing. My concern with ranking A&M higher is tied to the reality that Williams is yet to have a quality shooting team in his five seasons with the program. Every one he’s had has rated outside the top 150 in 2- and 3-point percentage, many outside the top 200. Until that changes, A&M is going to have a limit on its proficiency and efficiency inside the SEC and out.
43. Miami
After losing out to Duke in the high-stakes dual recruitment of Cameron and Cayden Boozer (who will be in college in 2025), Jim Larrañaga now focuses most of his energy on reversing the bad vibes that concluded Miami’s 2023-24 season, an unspeakable 10-game nightmare that rendered the Canes irrelevant at 15-17.
Nijel Pack and Matthew Cleveland decided to stay in Coral Gables, Florida, and that will prove vital to Miami’s chances to be a bubble team in the ACC. The Hurricanes lost a lot from last season’s team, but those two were the ones they couldn’t afford to see leave. Cleveland and Pack joining forces with a fun freshman, shooting guard Jalil Bethea, in addition to Stetson transfer Jalen Blackmon (who had the game of his life in the ASUN title game, erupting for 43 points and getting the Hatters into the field of 68) will ensure this squad is potent and powerful in shot selection and creation. Few teams underachieved harder relative to the talent on the roster than The U a season ago. I can’t see Larrañaga standing for that again. It might not be as good as Miami’s football team in 2024, but The U will be back in the better half of the ACC.
44. Ohio St
What a highly unusual situation in Columbus. Chris Holtmann was fired on Valentine’s Day and everyone presumed the Buckeyes would chase, and land, a buzzy name. (Dusty May was the presumed initial target.) But Jake Diebler went from interim to full-time coach, thanks to going 8-3 after moving over a seat.
Diebler has done well in his first season in terms of roster assembly. Most importantly, Bruce Thornton stuck around for one more season with the Bucks. I think he’s got a great chance to be a top-five player in the Big Ten. He’ll team up with boomerang transfer Meechie Johnson, who is back in an OSU uni after two years with South Carolina. Diebler recruited two former five-star prospects who didn’t pan out at the blue-blood level: Sean Stewart (Duke) and Aaron Bradshaw (Kentucky). They’re likely to start with another transfer, an understated team guy, Micah Parrish of San Diego State, who will be a utility guy to say the least. Not having Taison Chatman (torn ACL) will ding Ohio State’s depth in the backcourt, unless 6-foot freshman Juni Mobley emerges as one of the best 3-point shooters in the Big Ten with haste. Diebler as a head coach of a high-major with no experience other than February and March’s abbreviated trial run will make this a TBD season. But the talent should have OSU a bubble team at minimum.
45. Georgia
A year ago, I aggressively placed Georgia in the top 50 of my rankings, which I’m brave enough to admit was a fatuous mistake. This season, it’s not such a fable. The Bulldogs fully expect to be competitive and in the top half of the SEC, thanks above all to anticipated reforms with the team’s rebounding. (It’s been baaaaaad.)
Mike White has two players back who will be starters in Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain. Demary really might be the most undervalued player in the SEC. Also key: White has a freshman in Asa Newell who is the most talented newbie to come onto that campus (for basketball, anyway) since Anthony Edwards. Newell’s game is nothing like Edwards, however. He’s lean, stands approximately 6-10, can step out and shoot and plays with a good head on his shoulders. He’ll need to be a top-10 freshman in the country to validate my UGA ranking, and I think he’s gonna pull it off. Look for Demary to step up and be one of the best defenders in the SEC — with backup De’Shayne Montgomery not that far behind. Tyrin Lawrence (via Vandy) and RJ Godfrey (via Clemson) should round out the starting five.
46. Providence
Kim English is on a mission to not put PC in the position it was last season, when spotty metrics results wound up holding the Friars outside the velvet rope to get into the NCAAs. That team won 21 games and did so without Bryce Hopkins (while Devin Carter turned into the Big East Player of the Year). Hopkins is back, however, and approaching 100% status after tearing his left ACL. Look for the combo forward to increase his previous Friar averages of 15.6 ppg and 8.6 rebounds, and in the process, potentially become the most valuable player on a Big East roster.
English dipped into the portal and added Bensley Joseph (Miami), Wesley Cardet Jr. (Chicago State) and Christ Essandoko (Saint Joe’s) to help out returning guard Jayden Pierre (9.5 ppg). With Josh Oduro now in the NBA, watch Oswin Erhunmwunse step in and patrol the paint. Every year when I build out this list, there are invariably a half-dozen power-conference teams that feel like their range could be anywhere from No. 30 to No. 70. Providence is one of those teams this year.
47. New Mexico
The Lobos were laughably only put into the Big Dance last season because they won the Mountain West tourney title after an enthralling run that included five wins in the final six games prior to March Madness. UNM’s inclusion gave the Mountain West a conference-record six bids.
This team probably can’t match the firepower and athleticism of that one, but it can best it in tenacity and resourcefulness. Much of that will spring from junior guard Donovan Dent, one of the best players in the Mountain West. Dent, whose gumption is on display multiple times a night, averaged 14.1 points and figures to up that number in 2024-25. He’ll have returning C Nelly Junior Joseph starting with him, giving Richard Pitino’s team a couple of go-to guys in very different positions. I have to ding UNM for the losses of Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr. and JT Toppin, but the program’s arrow has been going in the good direction since Pitino arrived three years ago and doesn’t seem likely to go crooked over the next six months.
48. Bradley
It’s time for the Braves to ascend to the top of the Missouri Valley — and become one of the best mid-major teams in the process. Brian Wardle, in this his 10th season in Peoria, Illinois, has his best team. And consider: Bradley ranked 64th at KenPom last season.
Thanks to returning much of his roster (led by point guard Duke Deen and 5-man Darrius Hannah), Wardle can rely on veteran experience and a locker room with great chemistry. The Braves have to overcome losing their leading scorer (Connor Hickman) and best defender (Malevy Lyons), but seem to have most boxes checked for a mid-major darling. Great size, culture established, good guard play, capable 3-point shooting. The Braves have two MVC tourney championships under Wardle but just one NCAA appearance because 2020 was ripped away. Drake had been the Cinderella candidate in the Valley in recent years, and now Bradley should take that mantle.
49. UAB
The Blazers are equipped with four returning starters from a 23-win team. If Memphis doesn’t wind up as the best team in the AAC, UAB (officially the preseason league favorite) is the obvious candidate to take the top slot.
Any team that deploys a man in the middle with the first name Yaxel and a pesky guard nicknamed “Butta” figures to be set up for a certain level of success, deemed necessary by the basketball gods. Yaxel Lendeborg is a 6-9 hoss — a senior center who will threaten to finish with 25 double-doubles. Butta Johnson is a bit of a dynamo who should see his shot opportunities improve playing next to underrated Georgia Southern transfer Tyren Moore. UAB will be a problem in the American because Lendeborg is complemented by Christian Coleman, a power forward with a tough nose around the rim. Kennedy knows his team’s defensive issues last season sold them short. We should expect a more well-rounded squad in Birmingham.
50. Villanova
Everyone knows the deal on the Main Line. Kyle Neptune needs to make the NCAA Tournament in order to get to a fourth year with Nova. The program has quickly gone from a rock-solid top-10 reputation to confounding disappointment over the past two seasons. Now the Cats ready for a campaign with only seven players holding D-I experience.
Five of those seven, at least, are 21, 22 or 23 years old. Eric Dixon opted to stay, and that might be the thing that saves VU and keeps them competitive in the Big East. He and Jordan Longino will be the team’s leaders, while Wooga Poplar (via Miami) was the Big Transfer Get that Nova desperately needed in the back end of the portal cycle. Villanova hasn’t missed the NCAAs three years in a row since Jay Wright’s first three on the Main Line (2002-04). In order to avoid that in 2025, Neptune’s going to have to overachieve with a roster that ranks well outside the top five of the Big East. A program under pressure that has responded well in previous iterations. What will this one do?
51. Butler
If you’re outside the top 50 you probably aren’t in as a bubble team come March, but I think BU is one of the best sleeper NCAA candidates out there. Thad Matta’s toiled a bit for two years in Indy, yes, however his coaching acumen can’t be questioned.
By bringing back much of the roster from an 18-win team, the expectation should be to hit 20 victories. The two biggest names still here are G/F Pierre Brooks and F Jahmyl Telfort. They’ll be wonderful on a team that should move into the top 50 of offensive efficiency. I do wonder about the defensive integrity and the lack of higher-end athletes. Tulane transfer Kolby King is a guy who will also emerge here, but needs to beef up into a strong two-way player to bolster the loss of Posh Alexander.
52. Grand Canyon
A veritable mid-major beast these days. Bryce Drew’s program is coming off a first-round upset of Saint Mary’s in the 5/12 game, giving GCU a program-record 30th win in the process. The Antelopes were 65th in my rankings a year ago, which proved too low. I’m bumping ’em up that much more heading into November.
Four starters return, led by Tyon Grant-Foster, a 20-point-per-game guard who is one of the three-or-so most talented mid-major players in the sport. If bringing back a healthy portion of the team’s scoring and minutes wasn’t enough to convince you this team can win another NCAA Tournament game, know that TCU transfer JaKobe Coles and his 42% 3-point accuracy is also in the mix here. The Lopes are overwhelming WAC favorites yet again before the program moves on to the WCC next year.
53. Loyola Chicago
Non-Rambler fans, If I ask you what this team’s win total was last season, you think you can guess it within two spots? Loyola Chicago went 23-10 in a critical bounce-back campaign after the disastrous 10-win season the year prior.
For as good and improved as LUC was last season, the program sure didn’t seem like it received a fair amount of attention and publicity. Drew Valentine will need to have another 20-win season to get his flowers, and I’m here to project he will. Three starters are back at a program that retained five rotation players in all and should have the makings of a top-40 per-possession defense.
Miles Rubin averaged just 6.2 points, but I don’t know how many players who didn’t score 10 per game were more valuable, at least at the mid-major level, than him. He set the program record with 76 blocks in a season. Rubin, Des Watson (high-end A-10 player) and Jayden Dawson will be the triumvirate taking on a not-so-mysterious-but-still-sorta-unpredictable top third of the Atlantic 10. The Ramblers upgraded to this conference from the MVC two years ago. This is the season they show they made the right decision.
54. Notre Dame
Here’s a big swing. It was a slog in Year 1 under Micah Shrewsberry, as anticipated, but I’m tagging the Irish to be one of the more surprising high-majors in the months ahead. Shrews was able to retain four starters, the most important being point guard Markus Burton (17.5 ppg, 4.3 apg, 3.3 rpg at 5-foot-11). Burton gets to play beside a utilitarian transfer who should fit like a glove: Princeton guard Matt Allocco. ND brings back guys who don’t have big Q scores but are highly valued on that campus: Tae Davis, Braeden Shrewsberry and J.R. Konieczny. The Irish are going to punch above their weight and steal a few games as a home underdog. The program’s been on fire recently with some big-time recruiting wins. Notre Dame will likely be a projected NCAA team a year from now, but in this bridge season I like Shrewsberry’s crew to go from 13 wins to at least five more than that in ’24-25.
55. South Florida
With all due respect to the predictive metrics out there and how they’re formulated and calculated, the Bulls team I saw last season looked better than the one listed online. USF ranked 87th at KenPom, 84th at Torvik, 78th at EvanMiya and 91st at BPI. I’m not going to say USF was a top-60 team last season, because the data’s in and the data across different algorithms is correct.
However, if you watched USF occasionally and saw how that fan base was reinvigorated, how well-coached it was under Amir Abdur-Rahim and its new life as a 25-win team, you saw top-50 aura. Despite Abdur-Rahim not taking a bigger job after just one year, but losing vital pieces regardless, I’m buying in with the Bulls. I think they play their way to a second consecutive 20-win season. I think they build on a fun story in Tampa. I think they do it behind lead guard Jayden Reid. He’s an easy candidate for AAC POY consideration, and he’ll likely be tasked with a lot after USF got poached in the portal. Reid has Brandon Stroud and Kobe Knox flanking him, giving the Bulls the uncommon situation of coming off a good year with returning pieces, but likely being underrated. (Except here, of course.)
56. San Francisco
USF has a good policy in place: replace the departing coach with the best-qualified in-house candidate. It did this in 2019 when Kyle Smith left and Todd Golden scooted a seat over. Then, when Golden took the Florida job in 2022, Chris Gerlufsen was promoted from within. Since then, the Dons have gone 43-25 and maintained top-four status in the WCC, which is where they’ll be again for the next five months. Gerlufsen is fortunate to return four high-leverage players from last season’s 23-11 team: Marcus Williams, Malik Thomas and Ndewedo Newbury (all seniors), plus sophomore combo guard (and somewhat rare non-Gonzaga WCC freshman of the year winner) Ryan Beasley. This team wasn’t free throw-prone a season ago, something that should change for the better. A nice offense is likely to upgrade to a good one, and the defense can again be top-60 in the nation. That will lay the course for USF’s inside track to third place in the WCC behind Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.
57. McNeese
What Will Wade did to change the situation in mere months’ time in Lake Charles, Louisiana, is outrageous. McNeese won 30 games last year and finished 67th at KenPom, by far its best ever. Prior to 2023-24, McNeese’s average KenPom finish in its history was 257th; the Cowboys finished between 276 and 335 in the 11 preceding years. Then Wade arrives and all the suck and ineptitude is vaporized out of the program.
McNeese had a 19-game turnaround, tying an NCAA record. And remember, Wade had to sit for the opening stretch of last season because of suspension. Of course, he’s only there because of the NCAA violations and stain from his LSU days, but regardless, this is now a low-major monster. McNeese will rule the Southland with ease again. Look for Christian Shumate (awesome two-way player), Ole Miss transfer Brandon Murray and Saint Louis transfer Sincere Parker to guide the Cowboys to at least 25 wins again.
58. Wisconsin
THE story with Wisconsin is how it fares after being brutalized by the portal (“portalized”?) after being upset as a 5-seed in the first round by James Madison. The Badgers watched Chucky Hepburn (Louisville), AJ Storr (Kansas) and Connor Essegian (Nebraska) walk away, dropping their ceiling in the process.
This is a program that’s held a lot of stability in roster retention — doing so against the currents of the sport — but this year was different. At least Steven Crowl, Max Klesmit and John Blackwell stuck around. (Tyler Wahl graduated, alas.) There can be good portal news, though: John Tonje was a non-factor at Mizzou last year because of injury, but it wouldn’t stun me at all if he was a double-double guy in his final college season. Greg Gard has a big task ahead in what seems fated to have Wisconsin floating in the middle of a boggy Big Ten.
59. Syracuse
One of about five teams in the ACC that I think has the capacity to finish as high as seventh and as low as 15th. It’s just so tough to tell in this first year of overwrought high-major expansion. The Orange bring back JJ Starling, who’s a lot of fun and should be in striking distance of averaging 17 points.
Eddie Lampkin (previously of TCU and Colorado renown) will pay rent on the low block for his final year of eligibility. Junior wing Chris Bell (41.7% from 3-point land) is underrated and may unlock this team’s ceiling. Hofstra transfer Jaquan Carlos is also getting some buzz in the preseason, so we’re on the lookout for him. I like the Orange to finish top 10 in the ACC, but it could be a bumpy route to the finish. Consider how Red Autry won 20 games in his debut season. SU should be in that range again.
60. Ole Miss
This is a respectable jump from last season’s Mississippi debut for Chris Beard, which included 20 wins (good) but also had the Rebels finish 79th at Torvik and 86th at KenPom (not good). The Rebels return PG Jaylen Murray and combo guard Matthew Murrell, in addition to 6-8 wing Jaemyn Brakefield.
The defense was barely adequate at times, and now Jamarion Sharp, Moussa Cisse and Allen Flanigan have moved on. Can the group be collectively better? How will the scheme change? There’s a lot to prove in the frontcourt. I’ve got some reservations over Beard getting this new roster (which includes four senior transfers, led by Sean Pedulla and Dre Davis) to be good enough on defense to make the NCAA Tournament. But the scoring capability will likely lead to some barn-burning atmospheres every month.