Seven weeknight games usher in another college football Saturday as we head on into Week 8. With 16 weeks in the regular season this year because each team gets two bye weeks, this is the official halfway point. Although, because Army/Navy stands alone in Week 16 and Week 15 is reserved for conference championship games, we still contend that it was last week.
In any event, the temperatures are getting cooler and the days are getting shorter. That means that games are ramping up in importance. It also means that injuries are keeping more and more games from being opened on Sunday.
Here is the Opening Line Report for Week 8:
301/302 South Alabama at Troy (-15) – Standalone Sun Belt football on Wednesday once again kicks off the college football week. It will be South Alabama and Troy, which is a lot less exciting than Appalachian State vs. Louisiana. That game wound up being a defensive slugfest. We’ll see what we get here, but Troy is anywhere from -14.5 to -15 with very little movement on the opener.
305/306 Louisiana (-5.5) at Arkansas State – This has been an interesting game thus far. Circa Sports in Las Vegas opened the market at -6. The offshore market opened at -4.5. The line in the offshore market now sits at 5.5 or 6. This is a pretty decent Thursday night Fun Belt contest and should draw a lot of attention. We could end up with a sharp vs. public split here, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line move back down closer to kickoff. Right now, the modeling crowd prefers Louisiana’s gaudy rushing numbers to Arkansas State’s horrific defensive numbers.
311/312 Pitt (-3.5) at Syracuse – Four Friday games, including a true blue blood in Ohio State, are on the October 18 card. I would expect this line to keep going on the Pitt side. Pitt opened -3 with extra juice or -3.5 depending on the sportsbook and it does seem like -4 will be coming sooner rather than later. Pitt’s a pretty good team, as Mark Whipple is doing a good job with Kenny Pickett and Pat Narduzzi’s defense is better this season than in past seasons. This is likely going up.
313/314 Ohio State (-27.5) at Northwestern – There really isn’t much to say here other than the Buckeyes are taking early money off the bye week. With Wisconsin on deck in a huge game, I’d expect to see this line come back down a little bit. Northwestern’s defense is pretty legit, for as awful as the offense is. This seems like a spot where the dog could hang around and I would think that the handicapping crowd brings this one back closer to the 27 opener after the modeling crowd hits the low limits hard.
315/316 UNLV at Fresno State (-14) – I guess there aren’t many believers in UNLV’s road win at Vanderbilt. Fresno State was a huge disappointment last week. They had a bye week to prep for Air Force and still got rolled. The caliber of opponent goes down rather dramatically here and the market has responded in kind to drive this line from 11.5 to 14 offshore. Circa actually opened 14.5 and that looks like it was the right number all along.
321/322 Clemson (-23) at Louisville – So, Clemson. They had a semi spotlight game and made a statement over the weekend. Louisville outlasted Wake Forest in a 62-59 defense-optional thriller. It will be interesting to see what happens with this line. Clemson felt so disengaged for most of the season before taking the Seminoles to the woodshed. Was that the wake-up call for the season? It will be interesting to see what happens with this number, as Louisville has become something of a sharp darling with Scott Satterfield at the controls.
323/324 Army (-5.5) at Georgia State – Army had one of the highest season win totals in college football heading into this season, but just lost a road game that they were not supposed to lose against Western Kentucky. Now they take on an upstart Georgia State team with a very potent offense. This line opened around a touchdown offshore, but got bet down to 5.5. Circa opened 6 and that seemed like a better line. It will be pretty interesting to watch this one throughout the week to see if Georgia State, who is something of a sharp darling, gets the benefit of the doubt again.
331/332 Florida State at Wake Forest (-2.5) – Wake Forest gave up 62 points last week. A Florida State team thought to be on the rise got boatraced by Clemson. What happens now? Jamie Newman is dinged up for Wake Forest, but the line is still out and Wake Forest has taken some initial offshore money up from the 1.5 opener at BetOnline to 2.5. Most of the rest of the market opened 2.5 or thereabouts. Circa opened 4. When the dust settles, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that -4 was the right number, but the betting market has yet to go back to 3.
343/344 Purdue at Iowa (-17) – This seems like a hard handicap. Purdue looked terrible until Jack Plummer got on track last week against Maryland. Iowa is coming off of two really difficult games against Michigan and Penn State. It sure seems like 17 is a tall ask for an offense that doesn’t generate a whole lot of explosive plays. My gut feeling is that this line comes down throughout the week, even though my Power Ratings do have it higher. Maybe Maryland is just awful?
355/356 Boise State at BYU – We’ll see Boise State favored here, but with Hank Bachmeier banged up, this line is off the board. BYU really struggled to move the football once Jaren Hall went out with a concussion against South Florida. If Bachmeier is fine, it might be in your best interest to grab Boise as far as you can.
359/360 Arizona State at Utah (-13.5) – How many games have we seen like this in 2019? There are so many top-25 battles in which one team is laying doubles against another. We’ve even seen a handful of top-10 games like that. Utah is laying almost two touchdowns against Arizona State. Arizona State seems like a team moving up the power ratings for most people, but Utah has done absolutely nothing wrong since losing to USC in that weird Friday night game. A move to 14 is more likely than a move back down to 13.
367/368 Oregon (-3) at Washington – Sticking with the Pac-12, here’s a real interesting one. It’s Week 8 and I don’t think we know what Washington is yet. The Huskies have been extremely inconsistent, but they’ve also been dealt losses by some pretty good teams. Oregon is a very good team. As a general rule, most sportsbooks try to avoid going to key numbers or moving off of key numbers early in the week, but 2.5 wasn’t going to hold here. This line went up to 3 and 3.5 wouldn’t be a surprise at all. That’s where Circa opened, but some offshore markets popped 3. Personally, 3.5 is the number I’d have in mind if I wanted to try and entice some Washington money. The books are likely to need the Huskies here.
375/376 Kentucky at Georgia (-24.5) – Kentucky started a wide receiver at quarterback against Arkansas and the offense actually looked more explosive. Georgia outgained South Carolina by about 200 yards and still managed to lose to the Gamecocks and essentially a third-string quarterback. This line has ticked down a touch from 26 to 24.5 offshore after opening 27 at Circa. To me, 27 was the better of the numbers we’ve seen so far, but Georgia now takes the field knowing its CFP hopes are likely on fumes.
377/378 TCU (-2.5) at Kansas State – This feels like a flipped favorite situation. It’s hard to see this line going up to -3 with TCU in Manhattan. It’s likely to come down based on what we know about the market and how Kansas State has been a popular home team in the past. It is Chris Klieman and not Bill Snyder these days, but still. We haven’t seen any movement here, but I have a suspicion that we do and it’ll be on the dog.
389/390 Baylor at Oklahoma State (-3.5) – Baylor is one of two sharp darlings in the Big 12. The other is Iowa State. Baylor is coming off of a hard-fought overtime game against Texas Tech and now heads to T. Boone Pickens Stadium to take on Oklahoma State. A much needed bye week for Mike Gundy’s team can only help after losing to Texas Tech, but the Cowboys were -5 in turnovers in that game. The line has come down from 4 to 3.5 in the offshore market. Something tells me it isn’t done coming down.
395/396 Tulane at Memphis (-4.5) – The markets were on Memphis early last week against Temple and the Tigers came up short. Now Memphis takes on a Tulane team that just rolled through UConn in a controlled scrimmage. The market is split between 4 and 4.5 here and it’s fair to say that I don’t know which way this line goes. Tulane is a sharp darling. Memphis is usually a team that sharp bettors like. This is a pretty good game that will draw a lot of attention, so we’ll see which way the line moves.
401/402 Iowa State (-6) at Texas Tech – Let’s see what happens here. Sharp money was on the Iowa State side last week and it was right. Austin Kendall went out after one throw for West Virginia, but it may not have mattered anyway the way the Cyclones played on defense. Texas Tech is off of a nice upset of Oklahoma State and then an easy cover against Baylor. This line feels like it could go either way, as the Cyclones have been a popular sharp team, but Texas Tech has been really feisty, even without Alan Bowman.
411/412 Charlotte at Western Kentucky (-10.5) – Remember when Charlotte was getting some buzz in Conference USA? Now the 49ers are a double-digit dog to Western Kentucky. This line is up from 9 to 10.5 with the Hilltoppers taking the early action. So far, this is a stopping point, but it probably wouldn’t be the biggest shocker to see the line keep going, as WKU is much better than most people expected.
421/422 Michigan at Penn State (-7.5) – Michigan was -4.5 on the opening number for the Golden Nugget Games of the Year lines. Penn State is now more than a touchdown favorite in Happy Valley for this one. So far, we’ve seen a little bit of Michigan investment, but not a whole lot. The Circa opener was 8 and so was the BOL opener. So far, we haven’t seen a move down to 7 yet. Maybe one is coming, but it will take some investment on the Wolverines to get there.