Buffalo Bills at New York Jets ()
Watching Buffalo lose to Jacksonville was quite a stunning development, and it’s thoughts and prayers to many survivor players who had the Bills in Week 9. It definitely makes you think twice about giving away double-digit points once again when this team just failed to score a touchdown against the Jaguars.
We’re sure Buffalo won’t have quite as rough of a time with New York as they had in Week 9, because that would be impossible, even if Jacksonville’s defense was among the worst in the league. Mike White is coming off an injury and should struggle with the top-ranked DVOA defense in football, so the Jets aren’t an appetizing option either.
We’re going with a lean toward taking the points with New York having the rest advantage, and like the QB play we saw from the Jets backups. Overinflated Line here as many Bills bettors will be back at the window this week backing them. Line is too high.
Picks: Jets +13.5 or higher
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington ()
The Bucs and the Washington Football Team both had byes last week but in Week 10, we get two well-rested teams and an NFC playoff rematch from a season ago. While the Bucs sit comfortably atop the NFC South, the WFT is down in the NFC East basement.
The defending champs are No. 2 in passing offense while the WFT is 30th in the league against the pass. Washington is also dead last in passing offense, which doesn’t bode well once you consider the fact that Tampa leads the league in the rushing yards allowed per game, so they won’t be able to run it much either.
Picks: Wash +9.5, Over 51.5 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys ()
The Cowboys laid an egg against Denver at home, but do we really think that happens twice? Dallas came in averaging 40 points per game and was shut down for nearly the entirety of the contest, and that isn’t going to happen again with Atlanta in town. The Falcons, namely Matt Ryan, came up huge in Week 9 to hold on against New Orleans, but this matchup favors Dallas.
Atlanta’s pass defense and run defense have been almost equally unimpressive, and the Cowboys’ offensive line should look much better because of it. But by the same logic we’re using with some of these other games, winning by double digits is a lot to ask for and Atlanta can keep it close enough.
Early Lean Picks: Falcons +10
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans ()
Despite losing Derrick Henry, the Titans just keep on trucking thanks to this seemingly newfound strength of the defense, which comes as somewhat of a shock compared to what we saw last season and early on this year, too. It was a turnover-laden 21-point second quarter that the Titans used to bury the Rams in Los Angeles, which has to be one of the most impressive wins of the season.
On the other side, Trevor Siemian had to throw 40+ times against Atlanta because Matt Ryan lit up the Saints’ top-flight defense, and not being able to rely on the run game all day long is a recipe for disaster for New Orleans. We aren’t going to overreact because this is still one of the best passing defenses in football, and the Titans won the game with 194 yards of total offense.
The Titans’ offense is still one-dimensional without Henry. If Seiemien takes care of the ball just a little bit, this doesn’t look like the game Tennessee played against the Rams. But the Titans get up for all their games and are too well coached so don’t look for letdown with this team. Saints are also 2-7 ATS vs Winning Teams. Not good!
Early Lean: Titans -2.5 or less
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers ()
The Seahawks and Packers can both expect to have their star quarterbacks under center in Week 10, assuming Aaron Rodgers clears COVID protocol on Saturday. But even if he does, getting 4.5 points with Seattle knowing Wilson is back is an attractive proposition.
Before Russ went down, Seattle was the best yards per play team in football and was notably effective in the run game, but things have gone downhill since the injuries to Wilson and Chris Carson. Despite Carson’s continued absence, Wilson’s return restores some much-needed balance because Green Bay must respect that gorgeous deep ball.
Since losing Week 1, Green Bay with Rodgers under center has been nearly unbeatable, Seattle’s defense is top five in EPA over the past month. And the shoddy run defense for Green Bay opens the door for a Seattle cover with Wilson set to return for an offense that is one of the best in the league on early downs this season.
Early Lean: Seahawks +5.5
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