Louisville @
Syracuse
09-03
We’ll see if Syracuse is ready after getting routed by the ‘Ville each fo the past three seasons by a combined 127-37 score, with the Cards handily covering each. Last year it was a lopsided 41-3 home win at what they used to call Papa John’s Stadium for the Cards on November 13 when QB Malik Cunningham was responsible for 5 TDs (four pass, one run). The ‘Ville might have been motivated by the presence of Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, the Ravens QB who was present for the game, and it snapped a maddening stretch of results in which the Cards had blown leads and lost in four of their previous five games.
| SMU @ North Texas 09-03 |
SMU has owned this Metroplex matchup the past three years, winning and covering each, including a 35-12 romp in Dallas last September 11. This year, however, it’s new HC Rhett Lashlee in charge of the Ponies, who were a notorious fast starter under predecessor Sonny Dykes (now at nearly TCU), winning their first five games each of the past three seasons, and 12-3 vs. the line in those efforts. |
| Utah State @ Alabama 09-03 |
if there has been one pointspread role that hasn’t been profitable for Nick Saban aat Bama, it’s hosting non-conference foes like Utah State at Tuscaloosa. Where, often laying sky-high prices, the Tide is only 10-17-1 vs. line in that role at Bryant-Denny Stadium since early 2011. |
| Memphis @ Mississippi St 09-03 |
They’re still stinging in Starkville about MSU’s bitter 31-29 loss at the Liberty Bowl. In particular, a key 94-yard punt return for a TD by Memphis’ Calvin Austin that many believed was properly blown dead by one of the officials after the Bulldogs touched the ball down, though his whistle was apparently not heard and Austin would pick up the ball (a la Lem Barney for the Lions in a famous 1970 punt return vs. the Bengals) and race all of the way for a score. It was part of a wild final seven minutes that included onside kicks, penalties, reviews and 29 total points as the Tigers would rally from an earlier 17-7 halftime deficit. now, however, Memphis travels to Scott Stadium, and we’ll see if the Tigers can get a spread cover as a visitor for HC Ryan Silverfield, who doesn’t have one of those yet (0-8-1 vs. line since 2020). |
| Notre Dame @ Ohio State 09-03 |
First meeting since 2015 Fiesta Bowl (OSU 44-28). Only four meetings (‘95-‘96, then 2005 Fiesta & 2015 Fiesta)) since 1936 game, when Elmer Layden’s ND completed back-to-back wins over Francis Schmidt’s Buckeyes, including epic 18-13 win in 1935. Not-quite Marcus Freeman Irish debut as his first game in charge was Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl vs. Ok State. ND had covered 9 of last 10 in reg season a year ago for Brian Kelly. Irish 7-4 as dogs since 2017 (2-1 as DD dog that span). Ryan Day only 11-13 vs. spread last 24 on board, 5-6 last 11 vs. spread at Big Horseshoe. |
| Georgia State @ South Carolina 09-03 |
Shawn Elliott returns to Columbia where he served as interim HC for the Gamecocks following Steve Spurrier’s resignation midway in 2015. Elliott’s GSU closed fast last season covering seven of last eight games, including last five away from Atlanta. Panthers 5-2 vs. spread last seven vs. non-Belt, also 7-4 last 11 as dog. Shane Beamer 4-3 vs. spread as host in debut for Gamecocks LY. Tech edge-Georgia State, based on team trends. |
| Miami Ohio @ Kentucky 09-03 |
Some interesting technical angles for this regional matchup featuring schools only 120 miles apart. Note that Miami-O only 2-13 vs. spread last 15 reg season vs. line against non-MAC foes, though the Red Hawks are curiously 10-5 vs. points last 15 as dog. Meanwhile UK’s Mark Stoops is 8-3 vs. points last 11 at Lexington, also 6-1 vs. spread last seven against non-SEC at home after struggling vs. the line in both roles earlier in his UK tenure. |
| Utah @ Florida 09-03 |
At one time there was an interesting connection between these schools, as Urban Meyer left Utah after an undefeated 2004 season and landed at Florida, where he would win a pair of national titles before resigning after the 2009 season. Note that current Utes HC Kyle Whittingham was Meyer’s d.c. at Utah and assumed the HC job upon the departure of Meyer for Gainesville (Meyer’s other 2004 coordinator, Mike Sanford, would land the UNLV job the following season). Interestingly, Whittingham’s Utes have dropped last five vs. spread in reg season against non-Pac 12 foes and 1-6 last seven vs. spread against those sorts (bowls included). Utah was also only 2-4 vs. spread as visitor last season. The Gators have slumped since late 2020 (4-14-1 last 19 vs. spread), but note new HC Billy Napier was 34-5 SU the past three years with UL-Lafayette. |
| Rice @ USC 09-03 |
First meeting between these teams since way back in September of 1971, when John McKay’s Trojans shut out Bill Peterson’s only Rice side by a 24-0 count in rainy Houston. (Peterson, who left Florida State for Rice after 1970, would move across town to take over the NFL oilers the following 1972 season). New SC HC Lincoln Riley looking to improve upon the Trojans’ recent 2-8 vs. spread mark their last 10 at Coliseum. Note the Owls haven’t done much better, lately, only 3-9 vs. spread LY, 1-3 getting DDs, and 0-4 vs. points outside of C-USA. Rice was also “over” 9-3 last season. |
| Middle Tenn St @ James Madison 09-03 |
James Madison makes its FBS and Sun Belt debut this season after a recent history of great successes at the FCS level, including a national title under HC Mike Houston (now at East Carolina) in 2016. Houston left for the Pirates after 2018 and was replaced by Curt Cignetti, who has posted a 33-5 SU record since, reaching one FCS title game in 2019 and a pair of semifinal berths the following two seasons. note that the Dukes actually played 22 games in calendar 2021, including the Covid-delayed 8-game 2020 schedule played in the spring. |
| Troy @ Mississippi 09-03 |
This will be the debut of new Troy HC Jon Sumrall, who has deep connections to the Trojan program after serving on Neal Brown’s staff in the past decade. Most eyes, however, on Ole miss and HC Lane Kiffin, who was 4-0 SU and vs. spread at home vs. non-SEC foes last year in the reg season. |
| Cincinnati U @ Arkansas 09-03 |
Top intersectional battle here that might not have figured a few years ago. Note that Cincy HC Luke is 9-2 vs. the spread last 11 vs. non-AAC FBS-level foes, 5-2 last seven as dog. Meanwhile, Arkansas is 8-0 vs. spread in first four games past two seasons under HC Sam Pittman. |
| Houston U @ Tex San Antonio 09-03 |
One of UTSA’s early signature wins after it moved up to the FBS level was a 27-7 upset of Houston on the road in the 2014 opener, avenging a 59-28 loss to the same Cougars the previous season at the Alamodome. Note the Roadrunners are 14-4 as dog under Frank Wilson and Jeff Traylor since the 2019 season. |
| Arizona U @ San Diego State 09-03 |
This game marks the debut of the new Snapdragon Stadium in Mission valley, adjacent to the site of old San Diego/Jack Murphy/Qualcomm/ SDCCU Stadium, which hosted the Aztecs from 1967-2019. For the last two seasons, SDSU played its home games 110 miles to the north in Carson at the stadium of the MLS L.A. Galaxy while 35,000-seat Snapdragon was being constructed. SDSU romped over Arizona 38-14 at Tucson last season, but were only 1-5 as Carson “home chalk” a year ago. |
| Oregon @ Georgia 09-03 |
Intriguing angle here as new Oregon HC Dan Lanning moved to Eugene from a successful stint as Kirby Smart’s defensive coordinator at Georgia. Named to succeed Mario Cristobal last December, Lanning would stay on Smart’s staff thru the playoffs and the national title win over Alabama. Note that the Ducks enter 2022 on 6-13 spread skid. |
| Bowling Green @ UCLA 09-03 |
UCLA catching some flack for a downgraded non-conference slate that was originally expecting to have the first of a home-and-home series with Michigan in later September. But after the Wolverines pulled out of the deal, the Bruins had to find a replacement. Sources say AD Martin Jarmond wanted no part of Fresno State, which was willing to step in (remember, the Bulldogs won a thriller at the Rose Bowl last season), and would instead ink FCS Alabama State, the first time UCLA has ever faced a lower-tier foe (USC and Notre Dame are now the only remaining schools to make that claim, and the Fighting Irish will be soon dropping from those ranks). Thus, the Bruins’ non-conference slate now features this date vs. Bowling Green, Alabama State, and South Alabama quite a comedown for a program that once upon a time faced four foes ranked in the final top ten (Nebraska, Georgia, BYU, plus Illinois in the Rose Bowl) form out of conference in the 1983 season! Note that the visiting Falcons covered all four of their games outside of MAC last season and were 8-3 as dog, though they were only only 4-13 vs. spread previous two seasons for HC Scot Loeffler. |
| Rutgers @ Boston College 09-03 |
This used to be an annual affair when both were in the now-defunct Big East football league thru 2004, before BC would leave for the ACC the following year. They did match up once again three years ago in 2019 for a 30-16 Eagles win at Piscataway, which actually extend the BC series win streak to eleven games. Rutgers thus looking to square matters, and note that the Scarlet Knights have broken well from the gate the past two seasons under HC Greg Schiano, winning and covering both openers, and 5-1 vs. spread in first three games of each of the past two seasons. Schiano also 8-2 vs. spread as visitor the past two seasons. |
| Buffalo U @ Maryland 09-03 |
Keep in mind some of the awkwardness last season at Buffalo, when HC Lance Leipold left after spring practice, in late April, to take the Kansas job that opened up when Les Miles was terminated, and Maurice Linguist was tabbed to take over off of Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan staff, which Linguist had joined previously in the offseason. The late start didn’t help Linguist as the Bulls sagged to 3-8 vs. spread, losing and failing to cover their last four and 1-5 vs. the number their last six in 2021, plus only 1-5 as an underdog. Meanwhile, note that the Terps have won and covered four of last five openers (only L was in Covid 2020 vs. Northwestern), and HC Mike Locksley is 5-0 vs. spread at College Park vs. non-Big Ten foes since 2019. |
| North Carolina @ Appalachian St 09-03 |
First-ever chance for App State, which didn’t move up to the FBS level until 2014, to host in-state ACC heavyweight North Carolina. which should guarantee a raucous setting in Boone. Not the first-ever meeting, as these two did square off in 2019 at Chapel Hill, when a very good Mountaineers side that would eventually finish 13-1 under Eli Drinkwitz would score a mild 34-31 upset. That came against Mack Brown’s first Tar Heels side (in his second go-around at UNC, that is), and was fueled by Darrynton Evans’ three TD runs and sealed with a block of a 56-yard FG attempt by Nick Hampton of PK Noah Ruggles’ 56-yard try on the final play mof regulation that would have forced OT. Note that UNC has sagged a bit vs. spread lately under Brown, only 6-12 vs. line last 18 on board, and a mere 1-6 vs. the spread last seven away from Chapel Hill. |
| NC State @ East Carolina 09-03 |
In-state ACC schools don’t often trek to Greenville, but rest assured NC State remembers its last visit in 2016 that ended in a bitter 33-30 loss. Pirate RB Anthony Scott scored the winning TD on a 5-yard run with 5:49 to play to help ECU record what was at the time its sixth straight win over ACC opposition. NC State, however, did gain revenge in the 2019 opener with a 34-6 romp in Raleigh. Though last year was a breakthrough of sorts for Dave Doeren’s Wolfpack, they’re still just 2-5 vs. the spread their last seven as visitor. Meanwhile, the Pirates are on a 9-4 spread uptick since late 2020, also 4-1-1 vs. spread last six vs. FBS-level foes at Greenville. ECU was also 5-1 its last six as underdog a year ago. |
| TCU @ Colorado 09-02 |
Some indirect history between these two programs, with TCU indirectly taking the place of Colorado in the Big 12 a year after the Buffs moved out to the pac-12 in 2011. (The Frogs would leave the Mountain West for the Big 12 in 2012). This will be the debut for new Mustangs HC Sonny Dykes, who had previous gigs at La Tech, Cal, and across the Metroplex at SMU. Interestingly, Dykes’ Mustangs teams were notorious for quick breaks from the gate, winning their first five games each of the past three seasons, and 12-3 vs. the line in those battles. |
| Illinois @ Indiana 09-02 |
These old Big Ten foes haven’t renewed hostilities since 2017. It was a difficult slog last season for Hoosiers HC Tom “Mr. Intensity” Allen, with IU covered just 2 of 12 games vs. the spread, and none of five chances against FBS-level opposition in Bloomington. |
| Temple @ Duke 09-02 |
It’s too bad they didn’t play this one at the end of last season, when it could have been one of the all-time low-speed collisions as the Owls closed last season losing and failing to cover seven straight, with the Blue Devils hardly any better, losing last eight outright and failing to cover last six. Duke however has covered last four and ten of last eleven at Wallace Wade Stadium vs. non-ACC foes. This game in Durham marks the debuts of new coaches both ways (Stan Drayton at temple, Mike Elko at Duke). |
| Western Michigan @ Michigan State 09-02 |
After a desultory shortened season in 2020, 2021 marked a great recovery for the Spartans and HC Mel Tucker, who was 9-4 vs. the line last year. keep in mind, however, that MSU was just 2-2 laying double digits in 2021, and back to the Mark D’Antonio years is just 2-5 vs. line last seven laying DDs at East Lansing vs. non-Big Ten foes. |
| Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion 09-02 |
This matchup in Norfolk might bring back some bad memories for VPI, which trekked to venerable Ballard Stadium in September of 2018 as a 27.5-point favorite only to be dumped by Bobby Wilder’s feisty ODU, 49-35, a result that still holds a place in the TGS All-Time upset list. that still qualifies as the Monarchs’ high-water mark since moving into the FBS level in 2013, and highlighted by a shunning effort from backup QB Blake LaRussa, who passed for 495 yards and T TDs off of the bench. The Monarchs would then have no trouble hanging inside of another 4-TD spread the next season n Blacksburg, notching an easy spread cover in an honorable 31-17 loss. This week marks Brett Pry’s HC debut with the Hokies, looking to improve upon a current 9-17 spread skid, 6-11 last 17 as chalk, 2-10 last 12 vs. spread away from Blacksburg, all on the watch of Pry predecessor Justin Fuente. Note that ODU, which skipped 2020 altogether due to Covid, surged late last year, winning and covering its last five in reg season en route to 8-4 spread mark in what was effective HC Ricky Rahne’s debut season. |
| New Mexico State @ Minnesota U 09-01 |
New NMSU HC Jerry Kill returns to face his former Gophers team after stepping away from the Minnesota job late in the 2015 season due to medical concerns. Under Kill predecessor Doug Martin last season, note that the Aggies were 5-2 vs. the spread last year as visitor, all as dog. Meanwhile, note no covers the last four as non-Big Ten host for Minnesota HC P.J. Fleck since 2019. |
| Louisiana Tech @ Missouri 09-01 |
Some interesting technical angles here in HC Sonny Cumbie’s debut at La Tech. The road dog had been a good role (20-8-1 vs. line; 3-0 LY) for Bulldogs in Skip Holtz era, and last year including narrow outright losses at bowl-bound Mississippi State and NC State in non-CUSA action. Meanwhile, note the recent drop in Mizzou’s spread fortunes for third-year HC Eli Drinkwitz, with the Tigers only 4-12 vs. spread last 16 on board, 2-7 last nine at home vs. line, and no covers their last seven as chalk. |
| Penn State @ Purdue 09-01 |
When looking at results from recent years, it might not be the worst idea on occasion to completely dismiss results from the Covid 2020 campaign, especially for those leagues like the Big Ten that played roughly half a season. In the case of the Boilermakers, if tossing out 2020, note their 16-9 vs spread last two full seasons (2019 and 2021), with HC Jeff Brohm 12-5 vs. spread his last 17 chances as an underdog. |
| Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State 09-01 |
Mike Gundy and his mullet don’t need to be reminded the last time CMU trekked to Stillwater back in September of 2016. The 20-point underdog stayed close the entire way. But then ending rates a place alongside Cal-Stanford’s “The Play” in 1982 for bizarre endings. Trying to exhaust the clock with a 27-24 lead, the Cowboys thought they ended the game when QB mason Rudolph decides to throw the ball far from anyone on the final play, letting the clock expire. But the Cowboys were instead mistakenly penalized for intentional grounding, which is a loss-of-down penalty. Referee Tim O’Dey of the MAC said the game couldn’t end on a penalty and awarded one down to the Chips from their own 49-yard line. And, wouldn’t you know, CMU scored on a miracle “Hail lateral” play as QB Cooper Rush’s long pass was hauled in by WR Jesse Kroll, who lateraled back to WR Corey Willis at the Cowboys’ 12-yard line before fighting his way into the end zone..and a 30-27 Chips win! That would serve as a highlight of HC John Bonamego’s tenure at CMYU, even as the referees admitted afterward that they misinterpreted the rule and the game should have indeed ended after Rudolph’s last pass…intentional grounding or not. Needless to say, referee O’Day has not been oin Gundy’s Christmas card list since. Fast forward to 2022, and note that Chips HC Jim McElwain 22-11 vs. line since arriving at Mt. pleasant in 2019, and 11-6 as dog. Meanwhile, Gundy’s Cowboys are 12-3 vs. the spread their last 15 on board but surprisingly no covers their last three as non-Big 12 host. |
| Ball State @ Tennessee U 09-01 |
We’ll see if Josh Heupel is really about to lift the Volunteers into a serious level of contention in the SEC. Signs of progress in his maiden run at Knoxville a year ago, but please note his recent spread mark hasn’t been good dating back a couple ,of years to his UCF tenure, and a mere 10-22 spread mark his last 32 on the board. |
| West Virginia @ Pittsburgh U 09-01 |
The long and famous “Backyard Brawl” rivalry renews for the first time since 2011. Roughly 60 miles separates West Virginia and Pitt, but the neighborhood took a hiatus after 2011 when the Mountaineers moved out of the Big East into the Big 12, with the Panthers making a similar move out of the Big East, instead to the ACC, the following season. Pitt leads the series 61-40-3, though the Mountaineers are working on a 3-game series win streak after their21-20 win in 2011. Good news for locals is that the series will renew almost annually for the next decade, with eight games across the next eleven seasons currently scheduled. Into 2022, note that the Panthers are on a 17-9 “over” run, and are 7-1 last 8 vs. line against non-ACC foes in regular-season action. |