Identifying a bad line in the NFL market is tough in general, let alone doing so 11 weeks into the season. There’s more of a sample size for the public to gauge, making it harder to find edges.
However, numbers can still be mispriced if we dig deep enough. Here’s the board for Week 12 as well as the one line that has us scratching our heads.
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| MATCHUP | SPREAD |
|---|---|
| Texans @ Lions | HOU -2.5 |
| WFT @ Cowboys | DAL -2.5 |
| Ravens @ Steelers | PIT -3.5 |
| Browns @ Jaguars | CLE -6.5 |
| Cardinals @ Patriots | ARI -2.5 |
| Panthers @ Vikings | MIN -4.5 |
| Raiders @ Falcons | OAK -3 |
| Dolphins @ Jets | MIA -7 |
| Giants @ Bengals | NYG -5.5 |
| Chargers @ Bills | BUF -5.5 |
| Titans @ Colts | IND -4 |
| 49ers @ Rams | LAR -7 |
| Saints @ Broncos | NO -5.5 |
| Chiefs @ Buccaneers | KC -3 |
| Bears @ Packers | GB -7 |
| Seahawks @ Eagles | SEA -5 |
Bad line of the week: Chargers (+5.5 vs. Bills)
The Chargers were one of the early cash cows of the 2020 NFL campaign. Despite losing quarterback Tyrod Taylor to injury and piling up their annual string of one-score losses through a 2-4 start, Los Angeles started 5-1 against the spread.
Now, LA can’t buy a cover.
The Chargers have dropped four consecutive ATS over the last month to the Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins, and most recently, the winless Jets. L.A. has been awful in the box score, getting out-gained on a yards-per-play basis in four of the last five.
The Chargers could morph into a bet-on team later on in the year but it’ll have to wait at least another week – the team has a terrible matchup on the road next Sunday against the Bills.
Buffalo’s trajectory in the betting markets looks like someone flunked a lie detector test. The club got off to a roaring 4-0 start to reach its peak price point before – naturally – losing three in a row ATS and, after getting swept under the rug, is now back on the upswing. The Bills have covered consecutive games and should be on a quiet 4-0 run, had it not been for the Cardinals’ Hail Mary a week ago.
I love the matchup for the Bills’ defense here. This unit has only gotten better as the season’s progressed – after entering Week 6 ranked No. 29 in DVOA defense, they’re currently slotted No. 17 despite playing the 10th-toughest schedule of opposing offenses.
Lastly, fading LA fits an odd trend that’s been perfect since 2008: Teams playing the Chargers off their bye week have been 10-0 ATS coming into this year. The Jets made it 11-0 this past Sunday, covering as 10-point underdogs.
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