The fourth-seeded Houston Rockets visit the first-seeded Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. The Rockets easily outlasted the Jazz in five games in the previous round, while the Warriors had little time to recover from a six-game series with the Clippers. Houston seeks revenge for a 4-3 loss to the Warriors in the last years’ conference finals, and the Rockets defeated the reigning champions in three of their four head-to-head duels this past regular season.
Injuries/Suspensions
The Rockets are coming in full strength, while the Warriors will miss DeMarcus Cousins (quad) who’s probably out for the season. Also, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have some issues with ankle injuries, but they will be ready to go.
The Line
The Warriors opened as 6-point favorites with the total at 225.5 points and the Rockets at +210 money line odds. Golden State is just 3-5 straight up and ATS in its last eight outings at home when listed as a favorite of six or fewer points. Houston is 6-4 straight up and ATS in its previous ten showings on the road as a dog. The under is 14-4-2 in the Rockets’ last 20 games overall, and it is 13-7 in the Warriors’ previous 20 contest on the home court.
What’s at Stake?
The Rockets could get inside of the Warriors’ head with a win tonight, as they already outlasted the Warriors at Oracle Arena two times during the regular season. However, none of the rivals can expect an easy job in this series and eventual starting loss shouldn’t damage their confidence.
The Spot
The Warriors defeated the Clippers 129-110 in Game 6 on Friday, so they had just one day to recover and prepare for the clash with the Rockets who finished their job on Wednesday. Still, I don’t think the fatigue will be an issue for the Warriors. These guys had 82 games in the regular season with a bunch of back-to-back sets, so they should be ready for today’s opener.
The Matchup
While the Warriors like to play at a fast pace, the Rockets prefer a much slower tempo. Golden State averaged 102.9 possessions per 48 minutes in the first round against the Clippers and 100.9 during the regular season. Houston tallied 98.6 possessions per 48 minutes against the Jazz and 97.9 possessions during the regular season. The Rockets will have to slow down the Warriors, while the reigning champions will try to push the ball in transition and prevent the Rockets to set their defense.
Houston had a lot of problems at the defensive end in the first half of the regular season, but they’ve improved significantly over the last few months. The Rockets limited the Jazz at 97.8 points per game on 40.0% shooting from the field and just 26.3% from beyond the arc. Chris Paul will have to play tough D on Steph Curry, while P.J. Tucker will take care of Kevin Durant.
On the other side, the Warriors’ main task will be to defend well against pick and roll. They will also have to cope with James Harden’s isolations, and the Warriors haven’t impressed defensively against the Clippers. The reigning champions were allowing 114.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 36.3% from beyond the arc. They will face the Rockets’ barrage, and Mike D’Antoni’s team was taking 42.2 3-point attempts per game in the first round on 36.5 percent clip.
The Rockets were tallying 107.0 points per contest against Utah, making 43.5% of their field goals. James Harden had 27.8 points per game, while the Beard was averaging 33.3 points per contest against the Warriors in the regular season. Golden State was scoring 124.5 points per game in the Clippers series, making 50.2% of its field goals and 39.9% of its 3-pointers. Kevin Durant led the way with 35.0 points per game, dropping 50 points in Game 6, while he was averaging 25.0 points against the Rockets during the regular season.
The Bets
The Rockets are healthy and ready to fight. I’m pretty sure they waited for this matchup all season long and should be able to keep it close in the opening game of the series. The previous three head-to-head duels between Houston and Golden State were decided by six or fewer points, so I’m backing the Rockets to cover.
When it comes to the totals, this one could easily go either way, considering all offensive talent on both sides, while both teams will put on a tough defensive performance. I’m going with the under that has hit in eight of the previous nine H2H meetings overall and in four of the previous five H2H duels at Oracle Arena.