After a thrilling Game 7 win that will never be forgotten in the city of Toronto’s history, Kawhi Leonard and the rest of his Raptors teammates must now shift their focus to dealing with this Milwaukee team. The Bucks took three of four from Toronto during the regular season and did so rather convincingly in two of those three wins.

Toronto’s lone win did come in Milwaukee though, and the Bucks have been off for awhile, and that could lead to some rust concerns on their end tonight as well. But we’ve got the two best teams from the Eastern Conference squaring off for a right to play for a championship, and no matter how this Game 1 turns out, this should be a great series.

Odds: Milwaukee (-6.5); Total set at 217.5

Without question you’ve got to consider the fatigue/quick turnaround as a factor for Toronto this evening, but they have had two days off since that historic win on Sunday, and two full days off in between games is always welcomed by today’s NBA players.

At the same time, you’ve got to also consider the ‘rust’ factor for Milwaukee out of the gates, as it’s been a full week between games for the Bucks after getting rid of Boston rather easily. Milwaukee had six days off between Rounds 1 and 2, and their Game 1 effort against Boston was abysmal. The 112-90 loss for the Bucks was the only time they fell in the series, and from a hindsight perspective, it’s hard not to put some of the blame for that Boston loss on all that time off.

So depending on what side of the “fatigue vs rust” argument you lean towards, both of those things should be considered, and it’s a big reason why I’m not looking to get involved in the point spread tonight. Milwaukee has already shown they have the ability to come out flat in this scenario, and even if they do and Toronto is able to take advantage of it early, who’s to say the Raptors won’t run out of gas late. The playoffs are all about adjustments, and I’m willing to take in Game 1 from an observational standpoint on the side, adjusting to what I’ve seen for Game 2’s numbers.

The total however, is a different story, as it’s one where looking towards the ‘under’ makes sense given that Toronto’s been an ‘under’ machine all playoffs (3-9 O/U) and nearly all three of their ‘overs’ barely got there. Toronto’s strong defensive play have helped get them to this point as well, but from a schematic standpoint, I would expect Toronto’s defense to look better as this series goes on. As I said, the playoffs are all about adjustments, and the better understanding the Raptors get about what Milwaukee wants to run against them, the better they are able to take their time in between games to make those adjustments. For Game 1, it’s more about throwing as much as you want to at the opponent – offensively and defensively – and see what sticks.

Early Lean is towards Raptors +6.5

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