The Packers retain relatively heavy favorite status as they have a projected advantage of a touchdown over the winless Falcons. Each team’s top wide receiver missed Week 3 with hamstring injuries, but Jones will be good to go in Week 4 for Atlanta. Adams tweeted out (and later deleted) Monday that he wants to play against Atlanta but the Packers are keeping him on the shelf out of precaution.

The Packers found a way to win without Adams in Week 3 in New Orleans. The bad news is the player who helped them pull it off, Allen Lazard, is now out indefinitely due to a core-muscle injury. Naturally, his absence would be significantly cushioned if Adams is able to return. Green Bay also has some experience in the form of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who’s had stints as the Packers’ No. 2 receiver in the past.

In contrast, the Falcons couldn’t get the job done without Jones, although the blame for their 30-26 defeat to the Bears can essentially be laid at the feet of their defense. Atlanta’s latest debacle featured a blown 26-10 fourth-quarter lead to Chicago, with Nick Foles weaving some of his trademark magic to help his squad complete the miracle comeback. Calvin Ridley did a fine job filling in as the top wideout, producing a 5-110 line.

The projected total of 56-57 points ties the Browns-Cowboys tilt on Sunday for the highest of the week. Clearly, this number factors in the presence of both Jones and Adams at full capacity. It also seems to take each team’s defensive issues into account. As alluded to earlier, Atlanta’s struggles on that side of the ball have helped cost them all three games. The Falcons are allowing an NFL-high 36.0 points per contest. The Packers remain undefeated, but they’re yielding a robust 28.3 points per game in their own right.

FALCONS VS. PACKERS MATCHUP

These two teams feature highly accomplished quarterbacks and potent passing attacks when they’re at full health. Each also has a big name heading up their backfield, although the Packers’ Jones carries more cache at this point in his career than the Falcons’ Todd Gurley. Given that each squad has had its share of defensive breakdowns this season, this could well turn into the high-scoring affair it’s projected to be.

The Falcons, much like last season, are one of the NFL’s leaders in pass-play percentage through three games. Atlanta checks in with a 62.6% figure in that category (67.0% in 2019). Gurley is averaging just over 16 carries per game thus far and generating a pedestrian 4.0 yards per rush. However, Ryan has been primarily forced to frequently turn to the air out of necessity due to game script.

The passing matchup against the Packers defense is about middle of the pack. Green Bay is surrendering 247.0 yards per game through the air over the first three weeks. While all the attention has been on Jones’ hamstring, it’s also worth noting Ridley is hobbling around in his own right with both ankle and calf injuries. He managed to practice Friday in limited fashion but is also expected to play in Monday’s showdown. For Gurley, things are a bit thornier – Green Bay has allowed a solid 115.0 rushing yards per game, although they’re also tied with Atlanta for fifth-fewest rushing attempts faced (56).

Rodgers and his healthy pass catchers do appear to have a premium matchup in front of them. The Falcons will get 2019 fourth-round pick Kendall Sheffield back for this game at one corner spot. However, starting safety Keanu Neal is dealing with a hamstring injury and missed the first two practices of the week. Atlanta is already surrendering the second-most passing yards per game (350.3) through three weeks.

The Falcons have been tough on running backs on a per-carry basis – the 3.6 yards per rush they’re surrendering to running backs is impressive – but teams aren’t necessarily attacking Atlanta on the ground with how easy it’s been to pass against them. Jones is off to another strong start this season with 398 total yards and five total TDs, and he’s averaging an outstanding 6.1 yards per carry despite having only one run of greater than 20 yards. His presence as both a runner and receiver could certainly help make up for Lazard’s absence.

MNF BETTING BREAKDOWN

The Packers lead the all-time series between the teams by an 18-16 margin. However, prior to Green Bay’s aforementioned 2018 win, the Falcons had prevailed in three straight games in the series.

• The Falcons are 1-2 (33.3%) against the spread this season, including 1-0 as a road team and 1-2 (33.3%) in conference matchups. The Over is 3-0 in Atlanta’s games this season, including 1-0 in its road games and 3-0 in its conference matchups.
• The Packers are 3-0 against the spread this season, including 1-0 as a home team and 3-0 in NFC matchups. The Over is 3-0 in Green Bay’s games this season, including 1-0 in its road games and 3-0 in conference matchups.