WEEK 9 BETTING INSIGHTS
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills — 1 p.m. ET
The Seahawks defense turned in one of its best performances of the season over the first three quarters of a statement 37-27 win over the 49ers in Week 8. The Bills come in off a much tougher divisional win, having just scraped by the Patriots, 24-21, on a Cam Newton fumble.
The Seahawks may be ill-equipped to take advantage of the Bills’ defense biggest weakness at the moment. While Buffalo is allowing a whopping 163.0 rushing yards per contest, Seattle limps into this game with a hurting backfield. Both Chris Carson (foot) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) were forced to sit out Week 8. One or both could still be sidelined by the time this contest kicks off. Then, the explosive Tyler Lockett-DK Metcalf duo will have to tangle with the capable cornerback duo of Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace.
Seattle’s pass defense has been an Achilles heel all season, and that could certainly spell trouble versus the Bills. Buffalo’s Josh Allen has been struggling of late after a hot start, but a matchup versus a Seahawks secondary allowing 358.7 passing yards per contest – including 368.7 per road game – could be just the cure for what’s been ailing him. Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley and even speedy rookie Gabriel Davis stand a chance to do damage.
The spread moved a bit throughout Monday, tumbling a half-point down from the somewhat surprising initial three-point spread in favor of the visiting Seahawks. It currently sits at .
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts — 1 p.m. ET
The Ravens unquestionably remain one of the AFC’s top teams, but there’s undeniably some doubts after Baltimore suffered another loss against another quality team in the Steelers at home on Sunday. The Colts took care of their business coming out of their bye on the road against the Lions, putting up a season-high 41 points in the process.
One of the biggest areas of regression for Baltimore this season is in the passing game. The Ravens are averaging just 179.9 passing yards per game, a figure better than only that of the lowly Jets’ 155.9. Lamar Jackson has seen his completion percentage drop from last year’s 66.1 percent to 60.5 percent and has four interceptions after throwing just six all last season. The Colts defense isn’t exactly the unit to get right against either – Indy is allowing an NFL-low 182.0 passing yards per game at home and boasts an NFL-high 11 picks.
The Colts naturally have a challenge of their own against Baltimore’s defense, which is giving up the seventh-fewest yards per game (322.9). The good news for Indianapolis is that Philip Rivers has looked a lot more comfortable in the team’s offense over the last two games with a 6:1 TD:INT. That’s good news heading into a matchup against a Baltimore defense that’s currently allowing over 22 passing yards per game more than in 2019. The team’s backfield appears in complete flux, however, after a Week 8 game where Jordan Wilkins outpaced Jonathan Taylor in carries by nine.
Notably, the Ravens are despite the fact the only team with a winning record they’ve beaten thus far is the inconsistent Browns in Week 1. That figure has come down from the look-ahead number, and it’s worth noting Baltimore is 1-2 ATS as a road squad thus far.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars — 1 p.m. ET
The Texans took a much-needed bye in Week 8 after getting walloped by the Packers at home in Week 7. The Jaguars were also off Sunday following their own Week 7 defeat against the Chargers, a game that projects as Gardner Minshew’s last for what could be multiple weeks – the second-year quarterback is suffering from multiple fractures and a strained ligament in his right thumb.
Houston has a solid share of big names on both sides of the ball. That isn’t translating into wins, as the Texans head into the contest with a 1-6 mark. The matchup does line up extremely well for them against a Jacksonville squad they already walloped by a 30-14 score for that one win. The Jags continue to be ranked in the bottom 10 in both passing yards (281.9) and rushing yards (142.6) allowed per game. A Deshaun Watson-led passing attack that’s posting the fifth-most passing yards per contest (282.5) could be in an especially advantageous position.
The Texans run defense has been about as bad as Jacksonville’s, however, which leaves the Jags’ James Robinson poised for a very fruitful afternoon. Houston has yielded an AFC-high 165.9 rushing yards per contest. Robinson is coming off a 119-yard, one-touchdown rushing effort against the Chargers and may be leaned on very heavily with Minshew out. Coach Doug Marrone’s options under center are either sixth-round rookie Jake Luton or Mike Glennon, so the outlook for the passing game isn’t exactly bright.
Despite the two teams’ identical records, the Texans are significant road favorites at after initially opening as four-point favorites late last week.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans — 1 p.m. ET
The Bears came up short on both sides of the ball in a Week 8 overtime home loss to the very short-handed Saints, a defeat that highlighted some of Chicago’s current problems on both sides of the ball. The Titans had their own problems, as the upstart Bengals tripped them up by a 31-20 score., sending Tennessee to its second straight loss.
Chicago’s Nick Foles continues to have what might be a tenuous grasp on the starting job. He did throw for 272 yards and two touchdowns against New Orleans but was unable to lead his team to points in his one chance in overtime. The Bears have struggled to find wire-to-wire continuity on offense in games this season, which is naturally putting pressure on Chicago’s defense. The Titans are a bottom-10 pass defense (268.7 passing yards per game allowed), so the opportunities could be there for Foles to connect frequently with top targets Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney.
Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill has tossed multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, but he couldn’t keep up with Joe Burrow in windy Cincinnati on Sunday and now faces a Bears defense surrendering a middle-of-the-pack 228.5 passing yards per game. Chicago has a modest five interceptions but have brought the quarterback down 17 times. Tennessee does protect Tannehill well, however (modest 4.6 percent modest sack rate allowed). The news is even more favorable for Derrick Henry, as Chicago is allowing a surprisingly high 138.5 rushing yards per road contest.
The Titans continue to retain the status of comfortable favorites they’ve enjoyed since the look-ahead line was released late last week – the line has gone down from the initial 6.5 and sits at .
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs – 1 p.m. ET
The Panthers suffered their third straight loss Thursday night to kick off Week 8, with the visiting Falcons getting past them with a strong effort on both sides of the ball. For their part, the Chiefs got a bit more fight than they expected from the Jets on Sunday before dispatching them in a game that saw Patrick Mahomes return to vintage form.
The overriding story for this game on Carolina’s end is the likely return to action of Christian McCaffrey (ankle) from injured reserve for this game. The star back hasn’t played since Week 2. His return for a game in which the Panthers expect to have to be highly aggressive on offense in order to have a chance would be especially timely. The Chiefs are ripe for the picking on the ground as well – KC is surrendering the third-highest rushing yards per game (142.8), a stark contrast to the AFC-low 201.2 passing yards per contest they’re yielding.
Mahomes and his arsenal of offensive weapons have proven to be largely matchup-proof. There’s little concern against a Carolina defense that’s given up 232.5 passing yards per game, putting them right in the middle of the league. Additionally, the offense has an excellent chance of finding adequate balance. The duo of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell get a crack at a Carolina defense that’s yielding 135.8 rushing yards per road contest.
Having just covered what was a 19.5-20.0-point spread against the Jets, the Chiefs are currently afforded a advantage by the books.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team — 1 p.m. ET
The Giants look for their second win of the season at home Monday night against the visiting Buccaneers. Washington is coming off its bye week after dominating the hapless Cowboys by a 25-3 score in Week 7.
The Giants’ Daniel Jones has been plagued by the very issue he worked all offseason to curtail – turnovers. Ball security has been a major culprit in Jones’ sophomore slump. He’s given the ball up 11 times, putting him on pace to slightly exceed last season’s 23 turnovers. The WFT could be a dangerous opponent for Jones in a game New York will have to play at a significant rest disadvantage. Washington has eight interceptions, while its seventh-highest 8.2 percent sack rate dovetails perfectly in their favor with the G-Men’s NFL-worst 9.2 percent sack rate allowed.
Washington’s Kyle Allen threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns the first time these two teams met in Week 6 against a Giants defense allowing 251.3 passing yards per contest. Allen appears to be settling into the starting job nicely after tossing another couple scoring passes against the Cowboys in Week 7. He may be relied on heavily in this rematch, as New York is giving up just 105.0 rushing yards per contest going into their Week 8 Monday night game.
Washington is currently against their division rivals at the sportsbooks.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings — 1 p.m. ET
The Lions fell short in their quest for a third straight win against the Colts on Sunday, with Detroit’s defense allowing its second 40-point-plus tally of the season in the process and Kenny Golladay exiting the game early due to a hip injury. The Vikings had a much better time of it, upsetting the Packers in Lambeau by a 28-22 score on the strength of a massive four-touchdown effort from Dalvin Cook.
The Lions’ pass defense is increasingly a concern, with Desmond Trufant’s hamstring issues already costing him five games. Detroit is giving up 266.7 passing yards per game over the last three, and 262.5 per road contest on the campaign. While Cook was clearly the focal point in Minnesota’s Week 8 win over Green Bay, Kirk Cousins is very likely to exceed the minuscule 14 pass attempts he put in that game when facing the Lions. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson certainly have the talent to exploit their division rival’s porous secondary if given the opportunity.
Despite the impressive effort versus the Packers, the Vikes’ defense is still saddled with some ugly metrics. None stands out more than the 411.7 yards per game they’ve allowed. Matthew Stafford could have a difficult time maximizing Minnesota’s weaknesses in the secondary, especially against the deep pass, without Golladay. The star receiver is already labeled doubtful for Sunday’s game. The Lions run game’s infamous committee approach could also cap its upside versus a Vikings defense that allows 124.4 rushing yards per game.
Oddsmakers expect a close game with plenty of points, unsurprising given some of the explosive offensive pieces and questionable defense each team has played. Minnesota’s road upset at Lambeau on Sunday did move the needle, however – the Vikings are currently home favorites after opening at two points in the look-ahead line late last week.
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons — 1 p.m. ET
The Broncos pulled off a thrilling 31-30 comeback victory over the Chargers on Sunday, a game that may be ultimately looked back on as a turning point in the career of second-year quarterback Drew Lock. The Falcons had an impressive road victory of their own. They kicked off Week 8 on Thursday night by getting past the Panthers, 25-17, despite Calvin Ridley leaving in the first half with a foot injury.
Lock’s 248-yard, three-touchdown effort against Los Angeles’ talented secondary Sunday was an excellent tune-up for a matchup against a Falcons unit that has been much more vulnerable to the pass than the run. Atlanta has looked much better since Raheem Morris took the reins of the team three games ago, but the Falcons still give up the second-most passing yards per game (311.4). Lock continues to build chemistry with his young talented corps of pass catchers, and he impressively developed got DaeSean Hamilton involved Sunday with Tim Patrick (hamstring) out of action.
The Falcons will look to utilize both their rest advantage and extra prep time to throw some wrinkles at Denver on both sides of the ball. Having Ridley back from his foot sprain would certainly be a plus for Matt Ryan. However, Julio Jones has been playing at his usual All-Pro level when healthy, although the Broncos pass defense has been stingy on the road with 221.3 passing yards per game allowed. The Falcons ground attack could also play a key role in this game – Denver surrenders a fairly bloated 123.4 rushing yards per game (including 142.7 rush yards per over the last three) and Atlanta’s backfield showed a bit of a potential changing of the guard against the Panthers with Brian Hill seeing a season-high 11 carries.
Despite the Broncos’ impressive win Sunday, the Falcons currently retain a advantage at the books.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers– 4:05 p.m. ET
The Raiders showed some resiliency in a Week 8 win over the Browns in wind-swept Cleveland. Las Vegas gave up just six points to Cleveland after taking a 45-20 throttling from the Buccaneers a week earlier. The Chargers blew another late lead, losing to the Broncos by a 31-30 score on the last play of the game.
It’s difficult to get a read on which of the Raiders teams seen in Week 5 and 6 is closer to reality. Las Vegas’ defensive performance versus Cleveland was an eye opener. However, it did unfold against a questionable quarterback without his top receiver and in a bad weather environment. Derek Carr and his offensive teammates have an interesting matchup versus a Los Angeles secondary that definitely had some breakdowns late versus Denver. Carr will hope to have Bryan Edwards back from his multi-game absence due to lower leg injuries for the contest, but he already has a formidable arsenal in the form of Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor and Darren Waller.
The Chargers changed up their backfield workload distribution in Week 8 as they continue to manage the absence of Austin Ekeler (IR-hamstring). Troymaine Pope surprisingly logged 10 carries for 67 yards and added five catches, potentially displacing Joshua Kelley in the pecking order. Along with Justin Jackson, Pope is set up nicely against a Raiders defense giving up 140.0 rush yards per road contest. Then, the Las Vegas secondary has some interesting home/road splits. The Raiders’ have given up 318.3 passing yards per home game, but just 217.5 per its four road contests.
The Chargers are currently .
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys — 4:25 p.m. ET
The Steelers remained the NFL’s only undefeated team by a hair Sunday, breaking up a Lamar Jackson pass in the end zone as the clock hit zero to escape Baltimore with a 28-24 win. The Cowboys, playing without Andy Dalton (concussion) fell yet again by a 23-9 score to the Eagles on Sunday night.
Pittsburgh’s only discernible blemish at the moment is a passing game that doesn’t always hit on all cylinders. Ben Roethlisberger could have used a preseason to tune up after missing almost all last year due to elbow surgery. Nevertheless, he still has a 15:4 TD:INT despite the occasional struggles while completing 67.9 percent of his throws. The Cowboys secondary is giving up just 214.0 passing yards per game, so the matchup could actually be a bit thorny for Pittsburgh. Nevertheless, that could mostly be offset by the way the ground attack sets up – Dallas is surrendering an NFL-high 170.9 rushing yards per game.
Dalton should have a chance to suit up for this game, although it’s debatable whether that would be a desirable outcome for either the veteran quarterback or the team. The Steelers regularly throttled the Bengals during Dalton’s tenure there, going 16-3 against the Cincy during his tenure there. Pittsburgh’s defense is also continuing to play at an elite level, ranking top 10 in total yards (310.7), passing yards (213.9) and rush yards (96.9) per game allowed.
The Steelers opened as 9.5-point favorites when early lines were announced late last week.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals- 4:25pm ET
Tua Tagovailoa threw for just 93 yards in his starting debut, but defensive and special teams touchdowns helped carry the Dolphins to a 28-17 win over the Rams in Week 8 while also giving them their first winning record in the Brian Flores era. The Cardinals were on bye in Week 8 after notching the biggest win of their season, a 37-34 come-from-behind overtime win against the Seahawks.
Miami didn’t show much of anything on offense Sunday in Tua’s first start, so it’s difficult to tell if Flores and offensive coordinator Chan Gailey purposely limited the game plan, or if the vanilla approach was more a function of game script. In any case, the same luxury doesn’t figure to be a possibility versus the Cardinals and Kyler Murray. Miami will be challenged against an Arizona team that averages an NFL-high 419.1 yards per game, including an NFC-best 160.7 per contest on the ground. It’s about the worst possible matchup for the Fins – they give up 140.0 rushing yards per away contest.
The Dolphins’ bid to likely be more aggressive through the air could meet with some success. Arizona is allowing 267.7 passing yards per game at home and often facilitates plenty of extra opportunities for the opposition by averaging the second-fewest seconds between plays (24.97) in the league. Miami has a solid but not spectacular group of playmakers in the likes of Myles Gaskin, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki. They’ll each likely have to step up their level of play to keep pace with Murray and his teammates, but the good news is the Dolphins secondary has been elite on the road with an NFL-low 171.3 passing yards per game allowed.
The Dolphins’ impressive showing against the Rams has garnered respect – they’re now after opening at six late last week.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 8:20 p.m. ET
The Saints once again managed to navigate multiple absences at receiver in Week 8, toppling the Bears by a 26-23 score in overtime despite being without Michael Thomas (hamstring), Emmanuel Sanders (illness) and Marquez Callaway (leg). The Buccaneers will have a chance to head into this contest with three straight victories, as they’ll face a beatable Giants squad on Monday night.
New Orleans has showed the mettle of a playoff contender over the last two games. The Saints’ ability to get past the Panthers and Bears the last two weeks without both Thomas and Sanders – and their wins over the Chargers and Lions prior to that with Thomas out in those games too — bodes well for how lethal the offense could be once they’re at full health. New Orleans also upended the Bucs with Thomas playing poorly and then getting injured Week 1, but Tampa Bay’s defense has stepped up its efforts significantly since that season-opening meeting.
The Buccaneers will hope to have Chris Godwin (finger) back from this contest. Even if they don’t, they have quite the contingency play in the form of Antonio Brown, who’ll be set for his season/team debut in his primetime game. Brown will be eligible to begin practicing with Tampa Bay on Wednesday and has been studying the playbook since his signing last week. How big a role he’ll enjoy versus an occasionally vulnerable Saints secondary remains to seen.
Despite the Week 1 loss and the likelihood both Thomas and Sanders are available, the Saints are currently as road underdogs.
New England Patriots at New York Jets — 8:15 p.m. ET
The Patriots slipped to an unfamiliar 2-5 with a close loss to the Bills on Sunday, one in which Cam Newton fumbled at Buffalo’s 14-yard line with 37 seconds left. The Jets showed a decent amount of fight in an unenviable road matchup versus the Chiefs before being shut out in the second half of a 35-9 loss, New York’s eighth straight defeat to open the campaign.
Despite the very untimely miscue, Newton likely did enough to hang on to his starting job with 228 total yards and a rushing touchdown. This sets up as a very winnable game for reeling New England, and by extension, another spot for Newton to continue gaining some confidence in the offense. The Jets are capable of occasionally stopping both the run and pass when the mood strikes them, but the team’s motivation level likely dwindles by the week. Damien Harris also continues to thrive in the running game (15 carries, 102 yards Sunday and faces a Jets defense giving up 140.0 rushing yards per game.
New York will hope to have Jamison Crowder (hamstring) and Breshad Perriman (concussion) back for this game. Having both available would give them a fairly solid receiving corps when also factoring in rookie Denzel Mims. New England could be at a disadvantage if Stephon Gilmore (knee) misses a second straight game. However, the almost complete absence of a ground attack for New York (3.87 running back yards per game generated) makes it much easier for teams to focus on stopping the pass.
While they’re naturally not the nearly three-touchdown underdogs they were to the Chiefs, the Jets are still currently versus the Pats. The game also currently carries the lowest projected total of the week (42.5) – New England averages the fourth-fewest points (19.4) and New York puts up the fewest (11.8 PPG).