The Colts took care of their business against the one-win Jaguars in Week 17, notching a 28-14 win that featured a career-best effort by rookie running back Jonathan Taylor. However, a Titans win against the Texans gave Tennessee the AFC South crown and relegated Indianapolis to this wild-card matchup. Then, the Bills continued to gain a significant head of steam ahead of the postseason by putting up over 50 points against a Dolphins team that needed the win to get into the postseason.
Indy didn’t need much from Philip Rivers and his pass catchers Sunday, but the 17-year veteran has proved he’s capable of shouldering a heavy load when necessary. That’s projected to be the case in this matchup, as the Bills have essentially proven to be unstoppable for much of the second half of the campaign. Indy will therefore likely need to keep its foot on the gas, and with the Bills giving up 119.6 rushing yards per contest and 4.54 RB yards per carry, Taylor could be utilized frequently to keep the ball out of the hands of Josh Allen.
Speaking of the Bills’ third-year signal-caller, Allen played at what was clearly a career-best level this past regular season, despite ball security still being a work in progress for him. The offseason acquisition of Stefon Diggs, who finished as the league’s top wideout, was undoubtedly pivotal, but Buffalo will be challenged by a Colts defense that allowed the eight-fewest total yards (332.1) and second-fewest rushing yards (90.5) per contest. However, the Colts did spring some leaks in the secondary during the second half of the campaign and finished the regular season giving up 241.6 passing yards per contest, including 301.3 over their last three games.
Oddsmakers are showing plenty of deference to the Bills, however – Buffalo is currently listed as home favorites.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks — 4:40 p.m. ET
The Rams overcame the absences of Jared Goff (thumb) and Cooper Kupp (COVID-19) in their elimination game against the Cardinals, riding a solid fill-in effort from John Wolford and a standout defensive performance to notch the playoff-clinching victory. The Seahawks had some trouble with a feisty 49ers squad, but they managed to pull off a 26-23 win.
The Rams’ health landscape will naturally be the big question throughout the week, with both Goff and Kupp legitimate 50/50 propositions for this game. Los Angeles would be hard-pressed to get by without the two key pieces for a second consecutive game. The Rams are already a man down in the backfield as well with Darrell Henderson (ankle) currently on injured reserve, although rookie Cam Akers was encouragingly able to power through his own ankle issues Sunday, handling a hefty 25 touches. The Seahawks became a much more complete defense as the season went on, however, complementing their elite run-stuffing ways with much better secondary play, particularly at home. The health of star safety Jamal Adams will be a key storyline this week also after he banged up his troublesome shoulder against San Fran.
Seattle saw Tyler Lockett reincorporate into the air attack in a big way Sunday (12 receptions, two TDs) after frequently being overshadowed by DK Metcalf in the second half of the season. The Seahawks head into this matchup in good health on the offensive end overall, as even key complementary back Carlos Hyde should be over the illness that cost him Week 17. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting the Rams defense proved a formidable challenge for Russell Wilson and his teammates on that side of the ball, with the Seahawks averaging just 18.0 points over their two games against Los Angeles this season. The Rams also finished the regular season with the top-ranked pass defense (190.7 PYPG allowed) and No. 3 rush defense (91.2 RYPG allowed) while also tying with several teams for sixth-most turnovers (22).
Oddsmakers are unsurprisingly envisioning a relatively tight game, with Seattle currently listed as home favorites. Naturally, this is a line that could shift throughout the week depending on Kupp/Goff news.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington — 8:15 p.m. ET
The Buccaneers worked around an early Mike Evans exit due to a knee injury to put up over 40 points yet again in a 17-point victory over the Falcons that served as an excellent postseason tune-up for Tom Brady and his teammates. Washington was able to get the win it needed Sunday night versus the Eagles, edging Philly by a 20-14 score to claim the NFC East title at 7-9.
Brady appeared to have truly found his rhythm in Bruce Arians’ offense as the season wound down, throwing for 341 yards or more in five of his last seven games and four touchdowns apiece in each of his last two. The future Hall of Famer even demonstrated he could thrive without his most productive receiver in Evans on Sunday, dusting off Antonio Brown and helping the veteran put together numbers worthy of his Steelers glory days. However, the challenge against Washington will certainly be tougher than those presented by the Lions and Falcons the last two weeks of the regular season. The WFT’s defense allowed the second-fewest total yards per game (304.6) and finished tied for second with 16 interceptions, and a potential Evans absence could make it all the more an uphill climb.
Alex Smith was able to jump back into action for Washington on Sunday after missing two games with a calf injury. The veteran performed reasonably well but threw another two interceptions, pushing his season total to eight over eight games. The atypical turnover-prone tendencies could spell trouble against an attacking Buccaneers defense that forced 25 turnovers this season, including 15 interceptions. However, Washington could catch a break if star linebacker Devin White is forced to remain out due to his positive COVID-19 test, although Tampa Bay could get Shaquil Barrett back after he was only deemed a close contact of White’s. The other issue for Smith is the Bucs defense’s ability to make teams one-dimensional – they finished the season allowing an NFL-low 80.6 rushing yards per contest and 3.16 RB yards per carry.
Although Washington is the division champion and home team – and there’s plenty of uncertainty about Evans’ availability — oddsmakers clearly see those as quirks of the 2020 season. Tampa Bay is currently a comfortable road favorite.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans – 1:05 p.m. ET
The Ravens culminated an impressive late-season run with an easy 38-3 win over the Bengals on Sunday to clinch their wild-card berth. The Titans had a lot more trouble with the Texans, needing a Samuel Sloman carom shot of a 37-yard field goal to allow Tennessee to escape with a 41-38 win and the AFC South crown.
Baltimore finished the regular campaign with five consecutive wins, but there are still some lingering questions about Lamar Jackson’s ability to take to the air successfully against a quality defense. Jackson threw for under 200 yards in five of his last six contests, although that was more than enough to get by with rookie J.K. Dobbins emerging and Jackson himself contributing 481 rushing yards and four TDs during that span. The Titans defense is also far from elite, finishing the campaign allowing the fifth-most total yards per game (398.2). However, they did do a good job limiting QB rushing production (59-226-3) and kept Jackson to 3.9 yards per carry on 13 attempts in a 30-24 overtime victory for Tennessee back in Week 11.
The Titans offense was a juggernaut all season, finishing the season tied with the Bills for second-most total yards per game (396.4) and even with the Vikings for fourth-highest yards per play (6.2). Derrick Henry was able to get to the 2,000-yard mark for the season Sunday and finished the season with a pair of 200-yard rushing efforts in his last four games. It’s worth noting Henry was similarly at the tail end of last season and in the playoffs, including a 195-yard tally at the expense of the Ravens in the Divisional Round upset for Tennessee. Henry also touched up Baltimore for 133 yards and a TD in this year’s regular-season meeting, but the Ravens did finish the season strong with just 87.7 rushing yards per game allowed over their final three games.
This game’s line could be one of the more interesting ones to monitor throughout the week. Currently, the Ravens are listed at , despite the recent history between the teams.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints- 4:40 p.m. ET
The Bears backed into the postseason, getting into the tournament despite a loss to the Packers thanks to the Cardinals’ stumble against the Rams. The Saints were able to close out their season on a strong note despite the Saturday bombshell of Alvin Kamara’s positive COVID-19 test, trampling the Panthers by a 33-7 score.
Mitchell Trubisky failed to throw TD against Green Bay, but he did perform reasonably well after retaking the reins of the offense in Week 12. The often embattled fourth-year quarterback produced 1,495 passing yards and a 10:5 TD:INT while adding 105 rushing yards and another score over his last six contests. Second year running back David Montgomery enjoyed a similarly strong stretch, recording three 100-yard performances on the ground while posting seven rushing TDs in that sample. Montgomery was also excellent as a receiver during that span with a 24-226-1 line, but both players will be challenged to keep up their recent production against a suffocating Saints defense. New Orleans allowed the fourth-fewest total yards per game (310.9) and forced an impressive 26 turnovers, including a co-league-leading 18 interceptions.
The Saints offense will be in an interesting spot in this contest, as it’s likely Kamara has to sit out. However, Michael Thomas is slated to come off injured reserve and should have his ankle in good shape after three weeks of treatment and rest. His return, coupled with that of Latavius Murray from his stint on the COVID list as a close contact of Kamara’s, should give New Orleans plenty of firepower. The Bears defense was ranked in the top half of the league with 344.9 total yards per game surrendered, but they were attackable through both the ground and air at times and don’t project to shut down either aspect of the Saints offense. Drew Brees also had three games to get back into the swing of things before the season ended and finished with an impressive three TD passes against Carolina in Week 17.
Oddsmakers envision this as the potential blowout of the weekend, as New Orleans is currently listed as a home favorite.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers- 8:15 p.m. ET
These two teams met in Week 17, but the Steelers trotted out a team that looked quite different than the one they’ll trot out against the Browns for this matchup. As it was, Pittsburgh came close to notching a win, as Mason Rudolph threw for 315 yards and two touchdowns.
The Browns unsurprisingly relied heavily on Nick Chubb throughout the season and did so with great success. The third year back got over the 1,000-yard mark and logged a career-high 12 touchdowns in just 12 games, while Kareem Hunt chipped in 1,145 total yards and 11 total TDs of his own. However, Baker Mayfield’s impressive play after Odell Beckham went down for the season in Week 7 – 2,468 passing yards and a 16:2 TD:INT – was key to Cleveland’s 11-5 record. The Pittsburgh defense does promise to present an extremely stiff test, however, even after losing star linebackers Devin Bush and Bud Dupree throughout the course of the season to torn ACLs. The Steelers still gave up the third-fewest total yards per game (305.8) and picked off a co-league-high 18 passes, two of them against Mayfield back in Week 6.
Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play in Sunday’s finale, so the veteran’s troublesome knees should be rested for this contest. Big Ben was often victimized by drops from his pass catchers during the second half of the season. However, he and his receivers did finish their regular-season work together on a high note with a furious second-half comeback versus the Colts in Week 16. They’ll now look to carry that over against a Browns secondary that once again looked vulnerable Sunday versus Rudolph and that allowed the third-most passing yards per road game (288.2) this past season. It’s a good thing Pittsburgh showed a heavy preference for the pass this season anyhow, as running against Cleveland often proved to be a frustrating endeavor – the Browns gave up the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (110.8), including the seventh fewest (101.6) on the road.
With these two teams knowing each other very well and Cleveland playing so well to finish the season, the host Steelers are currently listed as just home favorites.