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Archived: NFL Rankings, ATS Records & Future odds

Nov 07, 2018 EST

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Though sportsbooks got crushed around the world this past week, mostly by favorites, overall they were only 6-6 SU and ATS. After leveling off, short favorites got nailed this week.

Favorites: 6-6 SU and 6-6 ATS
(Season: 84-42-2 SU and 59-66-3 ATS)
Favorite of 7 or more: 2-0 SU and 2-2 ATS
(Season: 26-6 SU and 16-15-1 ATS)
Favorites of 3 or less: 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS
(Season: 26-26-2 SU and 23-29-2 ATS)
Home Underdogs: 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS
(Season: 15-16-2 SU and 21-12 ATS)
Pick Games: Home team 4-2 ATS

This all leads to our Latest NFL Power Ratings. These type of ratings are based not only on records but on how teams did against the point spread, which gives us a broader view when it comes to understanding the strengths of a team when making lines. Here are this week’s ranking and team updates.

1. New Orleans Saints

Odds: +500
Record: 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 3rd

Nobody is playing better football right now than the Saints after their brilliant victory over the Rams. We moved them to the top spot of power ratings, but their actual number is the same as Kansas City. A trip to Cincy could be treacherous.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Odds: +550
Record: 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 2nd

Though Kansas City figured to move to the top spot in power ratings based on spread record, their defense is still causing a lot of concern and for that, we well kept them as the best team in the AFC. The Chiefs should pummel Arizona.

3. Los Angeles Rams

Odds: +350
Record: 8-1 SU and 4-4-1 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 1st

Since starting 3-0 SU and ATS, the Rams have allowed four of their next six opponents to score 27 or more points and are 1-4-1 ATS in the process. Drew Brees and New Orleans fully exposed all their defensive shortcomings as they suffered first loss of the season. Next up is a rematch with Seattle at home.

4. Minnesota Vikings

Odds: +1400
Record: 5-3-1 SU and 4-3-2 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 7th

After a very sluggish defensive start, the Vikings are starting to swarm. Their defensive line engulfed Matt Stafford in victory. After a bye week, Minnesota will be on the road for three of their next four, with an important one first at Chicago.

5. New England Patriots

Odds: +500
Record: 6-2 and 5-3 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 4th

The Patriots were tested for three quarters by Green Bay, but as all quality teams do, New England put them away with 14-0 fourth quarter. The Pats have a trip to Nashville on tap and they are 15-5 ATS on the road since 2016.

6. Carolina Panthers

Odds: +2000
Record: 6-2 SU and 5-3  ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 5th

Carolina built a huge 35-7 first-half lead over Tampa Bay, coasted until the Bucs got within seven points and then put them away. There game on Thursday at Pittsburgh should be one of the best of Week 10.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers

Odds: +1200
Record: 5-2-1 SU and 5-3 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 6th

The Steelers extracted their revenge on Baltimore and have set themselves up to take control of the AFC North if they sweep Cincinnati. Compelling matchup of Big Ben vs. Cam Newton Thursday on FOX.

8. Los Angeles Chargers

Odds: +1400
Record: 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 9th

The Chargers built a nice lead at Seattle but had to hang on to win. This week should not be nearly as difficult even if it is a division confrontation at Oakland.

9. Seattle Seahawks

Odds: +5000
Record: 4-4 and 4-3-1 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 8th

Seattle suffered secondary breakdowns and dropped passes in losing to the L.A. Chargers at the buzzer at home. That was a needed victory with a trip to play the other Los Angeles squad this week whose off a loss.

10. Houston Texans

Odds: +2200
Record: 6-3 SU and 4-4-1 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 10th

Houston has performed a turnaround similar to what Kansas City did a few years ago with six straight wins after beginning 0-3. Timing of bye week seems almost perfect to permit QB Deshaun Watson to get healthy.

11. Chicago Bears

Odds: +2500
Record: 5-3 SU and ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 15th

Chicago only gained 190 yards in scoring 41 points at Buffalo as the defense never rested in the blowout. If the Bears can win next two home games against Detroit and Minnesota, they set themselves up to win NFC North.

12. Philadelphia Eagles

Odds: +2200
Record: 4-4 and 3-5 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 11th

Philadelphia has played like typical Super Bowl champion that came out nowhere. With the NFC East just waiting for someone to take charge, the Eagles can start to do so with a win over Dallas Sunday night.

13. Baltimore Ravens

Odds: +5000
Record: 4-5 SU and ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 12th

Baltimore has a week to think about everything that has gone wrong in a current three-game losing streak and dropping four of five. The lack of big plays has killed them on both sides of the ball.

14. Atlanta Falcons

Odds: +4000
Record: 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 19th

Atlanta players will tell you, sometimes just winning consecutive games, even without dominating, alters a team’s confidence. The Dirty Birds crushed Washington and try to make four in a row at Cleveland.

15. Cincinnati Bengals

Odds: +4000
Record: 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 16th

Coming off a bye and catching New Orleans as a home underdog after three very difficult games should be a plus. Then you see the Bengals are 32nd against the pass with Drew Brees in town.

16. Tennessee Titans

Odds: +6600
Record: 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 22nd

Strong win by Tennessee at Dallas on Monday. But not time to celebrate for the Titans with Tom Brady and New England in Nashville next.


17. Green Bay Packers

Odds: +5000
Record: 3-4-1 SU and 3-5 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 13th

Green Bay plays one rung below the top teams in the NFL which is why they have the record they do. To have any shot at the playoffs, the Packers have to go 6-2 and it starts this week with a home game versus Miami.

18. Detroit Lions

Odds: +15000
Record: 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 14th

The Detroit front office said they were not giving up on the season when trading Golden Tate. If you saw how much Matthew Stafford missed him in defeat at Minnesota, one would beg to differ. Can the Lions pull it together in Chicago?

19. Indianapolis Colts

Odds: +12500
Record: 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 20th

It’s back to work for a young and improving Indianapolis team that has won last two games by 14 or more points.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars

Odds: +6600
Record: 3-5 SU and ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 21st

As the season was about to start, who would have thought Jacksonville would be a field goal road underdog in Week 10 at Indianapolis? Exactly!

21. Dallas Cowboys

Odds: +6600
Record: 3-5 SU and 3-5-1 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 17th

Ugly loss for the Cowboys on Monday night, being handled by Tennessee. It does not get any easier with a trip to Philly to face the Eagles.

22. Washington Redskins

Odds: +4000
Record: 5-3 SU and ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 18th

Washington should never get any credit for winning, ever. After taking three straight, the Redskins folded like a poker player with 8 and 2 for hole cards in being blasted by Atlanta. That left such an impression the Skins were underdogs at Tampa Bay to start the week.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Odds: +50000
Record: 3-4 SU and ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 23rd

Ryan Fitzgerald in back in all his glory, coming of a loss at Carolina where he had four TD passes and two interceptions. Tampa Bay started out as home favorite over Washington.

24. Denver Broncos

Odds: +25000
Record: 3-6 SU and 3-5-1 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 24th

Denver’s score differential is only -8 in spite of their record. Since winning first two games by four points, the Broncos are 0-4 SU in contests decided by a touchdown or less.

25. San Francisco 49ers

Odds: +150000
Record: 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 27th

Niners QB Nick Mullens put together one of the best statistical debuts by a quarterback in league history. But will he start against Giants on Monday night football?

26. Miami Dolphins

Odds: +15000
Record: 5-4 SU and ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 28th

Miami had 168 yards of total offense against the Jets but beat them thanks to four Darnold picks. Aaron Rodgers might have that many yards in a quarter at Lambeau against the Dolphins defense Sunday.

27. New York Giants

Odds: +100000
Record: 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 26th

The Giants even screwed up the bye week. Potential starting QB Kyle Lauletta, who was being given serious consideration to replace Eli Manning, was arrested and charged with various motor vehicle and disorderly persons offenses on Oct. 30th. Wonder if he will have any stripes on his uniform Monday night in Santa Clara?

28. New York Jets

Odds: +40000
Record: 3-6 SU and ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 25th

Quarterback Sam Darnold said after losing to Miami last week, he was  “just playing stupid”. With seven interceptions during the Jets three-game losing streak, some might agree. If the Flyboys don’t win and cover against Buffalo this week, more might be on board with Darnold’s thinking.

29. Cleveland Browns

Odds: +50000
Record: 2-6-1 SU and 5-4 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 29th

It’s not like Cleveland had really turned a corner, but as they get ready to face a smoking hot Matt Ryan at home this week, trying to avoid a fifth straight loss, they have seen in recent games Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

30. Arizona Cardinals

Odds: +75000
Record: 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 30th

Arizona starts the second half of their season having to try and match points at Kansas City. Oddsmakers don’t like the Cardinals chances, opening them up as 17-point underdogs.

31. Buffalo Bills

Odds: +100000
Record: 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 31st

In the Bills last six games they have averaged an impossible to believe by any football standard 7.6 PPG. We guess it’s good news QB Josh Allen is upgraded to ‘probable” this week for the Jets conflict.

32. Oakland Raiders

Odds: +150000
Record: 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS
Last Week’s Rank: 32nd

The locals in Vegas have seen plenty of losers over the years and it is setting up they are going to get one of their own when the Raiders officially arrive in 2020. Jon Gruden seems to be the only one confident in his plan. (Whatever that is).


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