The Favorites

Kansas City Chiefs (+500): The Chiefs are overhauling their offensive line after that unit was dominated in Super Bowl LV and gave Patrick Mahomes almost no chance to keep pace with the Bucs. Starting tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are gone, but elite guards Joe Thuney and Kyle Long are on board with more moves possible now that Travis Kelce and Chris Jones have restructured their contract.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750): Instead of pursuing any free agents, the defending champs have prioritized keeping their team intact with Tom Brady taking another paycut to help re-sign Chris Godwin, Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David, and Rob Gronkowski among others. Tampa might have the most talented LB corps in the NFL for years to come.

Green Bay Packers (+1100): Aaron Rodgers is still among the 3 best QBs in football, but the Packers front office is not giving him any more weapons other than re-signing RB Aaron Jones. Perhaps they believe in the quick development of Marques Valdez-Scantling and Allen Lazard as secondary options behind Davante Adams.

Baltimore Ravens (+1300): Lamar Jackson needs to improve significantly as a pocket passer if the Ravens are going to advance in the playoffs. Adding jump-ball dynamo Kenny Golladay would certainly help Jackson gain more confidence when throwing downfield.

Buffalo Bills (+1400): Between Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and veteran Emmanuel Sanders, the Bills have the savviest group of route runners in the NFL. Of course, they also have a rising superstar in Josh Allen, who is third behind Mahomes (+600) and Rodgers (+800) with +1300 odds to win MVP this preseason.

Los Angeles Rams (+1400): The Rams pulled off the first ever trade of No. 1 overall draft picks and brought back Matt Stafford to quarterback and otherwise loaded team. Their secondary took a hit with CB Troy Hill and S John Johnson headed to Cleveland, but they have plenty of depth back there and re-signed LB Leonard Floyd to ensure a steady pass rush.

San Francisco 49ers (+1500): Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Richard Sherman, and Solomon Thomas all missed huge chunks of time last year and the Niners will get them all back this offseason, while incorporating arguably the best OT in the game in Trent Williams. The biggest question is whether they will upgrade at QB by moving Garoppolo.

The Contenders

Cleveland Browns (+2500): Odell Beckham Jr. (ACL) returns to give the Browns offense another dynamic and their two-headed rushing attack should be just as potent behind a mauling offensive line. Cleveland’s secondary is going to be much better with Troy Hill and John Johnson coming over from the Rams.

Indianapolis Colts (+2500): Adding Carson Wentz has given the Colts only a slight boost in terms of Super Bowl odds from +2800 to +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook. They don’t appear poised to make any other major moves other than re-signing key linemen and perhaps LB Darius Leonard.

New England Patriots (+2800): Bill Belichick and the Krafts underwent a record-setting spending spree by dropping nearly $200M in the first week of free agency. They snagged both of the best TEs (Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith) on the market, grabbed significant additions to their front seven and will get LB Dont’a Hightower back after he opted out. No one is doubting this franchise and their ability to build around Cam Newton, which is why their odds have jumped from +4000 to +2800 in a couple weeks.

Dallas Cowboys (+2800): Jerry Jones finally opened his pocketbook to give Dak Prescott a four-year mega deal. With Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Amari Cooper commanding some $57.7M against the cap, there isn’t much money left to upgrade a vulnerable defense.

New Orleans Saints (+2800): In retirement, Drew Brees helped the Saints stay afloat by spreading his remaining cap hit over two years. New Orleans had to let go of Trey Hendrickson, Kwon Alexander, and Janoris Jenkins among others, but could still make a big move and possibly swing for a QB to start over Jameis Winston.

Seattle Seahawks (+2800): Russell Wilson has been mentioned in trade rumors throughout the offseason and is not going to be happy about the lack of offensive line help coming to Seattle. Even with an MVP candidate under center, the Seahawks could miss the playoffs in the loaded NFC West.

The Underdogs

Miami Dolphins (+2800): With Ryan Fitzpatrick gone, Tua Tagovailoa has the keys to the franchise and he’ll have to make do with a weak receiving corps that only gets marginally better following the addition of Will Fuller.

Tennessee Titans (+3300): The Titans need a ton of help on the defensive side of the ball and they’re shuffling a ton of personnel with CB Malcolm Butler, CB Adoree Jackson, and S Kenny Vaccaro out, while CB Janoris Jenkins, DT Denico Autry, and OLB Bud Dupree join the Fighting Vrables.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3300): Ben Roethlisberger is back for at least one more year and so is JuJu Smith-Schuster, but Pittsburgh’s massive collapse in the second half wasn’t due to inefficiencies in the passing game. They need to add some help on the offensive line to establish a balanced attack.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3300): Former Rams DC Brandon Staley snagged arguably the best coaching vacancy in the NFL with Justin Herbert on a steady upward trajectory and several key defenders set to get healthy for the Bolts, including stud safety Derwin James.

Arizona Cardinals (+4000): Like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray has to work on his traditional skill set in order to take the next step as an NFL quarterback. He does have more help with DeAndre Hopkins dominating and veteran A.J. Green capable of contributing, while the Cardinals above-average defense could become elite thanks to the addition of J.J. Watt.

Washington Football Team (+5000): Washington was very aggressive this offseason and their odds have moved from +6000 to +5000 as they look to return to the playoffs. Ryan Fitzpatrick can win the starting job and make Washington’s young receiving corps look good, while LB David Mayo and DB William Jackson bolster Ron Rivera’s steady defense.

The Long shots

Carolina Panthers (+4000): Any team that is competitive without Christian McCaffrey is capable of finishing above .500 with an MVP candidate in the backfield. The team will also see a quarterback change from Teddy Bridgewater to Sam Darnold after a trade with the Jets for a 2021 sixth-round pick, 2022 second-round pick and and 2022 fourth-round pick.

Chicago Bears (+5000): The Bears finally moved on from Mitchell Trubisky, but adding Andy Dalton for $10M isn’t inspiring much confidence from their dejected fan base, or from oddsmakers.

Minnesota Vikings (+5000): The Vikings are a good team, they’re just unlikely to be great. Second-year WR Justin Jefferson, however, is going to be a great individual player.

Las Vegas Raiders (+6000): There were flashes from the Raiders last season, including a win and close loss to the Chiefs, but they showed little discipline under Jon Gruden.

Denver Broncos (+6000): John Elway is still looking for his franchise QB, but the Broncos should have one of the past rushes in the game with Von Miller (Achilles) set to return opposite Bradley Chubb.

Atlanta Falcons (+6600): Shame on this franchise for dropping Raheem Morris after he turned their bottom 5 defense into the No. 12 unit in Weighted DVOA (per Football Outsiders) by the end of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6600): Jalen Hurts is simply a winner and the Eagles will find it easy to turn the page under new coach Nick Sirianni.

New York Giants (+7000): Joe Judge looks like he will be part of the bountiful branch of Belichick’s coaching tree. The Giants can keep overachieving defensively and Saquon Barkley can carry an offense.

New York Jets (+7000): Robert Saleh doesn’t enter an enviable situation, but the Jets are at least expected to be competent after signing WRs Corey Davis and Keelan Cole. They have also moved on from QB Sam Darnold, likely starting the presumptive second overall pick in the draft, BYU’s Zach Wilson

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7000): With Urban Meyer at the helm and Travis Lawrence likely to be drafted in April, the Jags are building for the future and they’ve added several key pieces to work around Lawrence, including WR Marvin Jones Jr.

Cincinnati Bengals (+8000): Joe Burrow (ACL) gives this listless franchise some hope, but they need a lot of pieces to contend, especially some upgrades on the offensive line.

Houston Texans (+15000): The Texans are trying to pull out of a nose dive by signing a number of mid-tier free agents. With Deshaun Watson in the news for the wrong reasons, they might have waited too long to trade their franchise QB.

Detroit Lions (+15000): Moving from L.A. to Detroit and from Sean McVay to Dan Campbell is going to seriously test Jared Goff.