Former Morning-line oddsmaker & OTL Horse Racing Expert Jay Vance offers his free expert picks and tips for Thursday’s races at Churchill Downs. First post is at 5 p.m.
1st race
CHASE GREATNESS posted a bullet work here earlier this month and Horacio DePaz has excellent numbers with his first timers. Give him the edge in the opener. NINTH STREET debuts for Steve Asmussen off of some solid works at Keeneland, and looks like the one to beat with Corey Lanerie aboard. PURE SPECULATION has been training well for Bret Calhoun who is very good with his 2-year-olds.
2nd race
URSULA ANDRESS was claimed from a winning effort and appears to be in a good spot to make it two in a row with Lanerie retaining the mount for Matt Hebert. MYOSITIS MYSTIQUE was no match for the top pick at Keeneland but was an impressive winner over this track last out and has to be respected. WILL GRACIE SHINE has the speed to be dangerous.
3rd race
ELUSIVE MILLION has been off for over a year but moves to the barn of Mike Maker for her comeback. She has been training steadily and drops in for a tag for the first time. SOFT CHEESE comes off of a game front running win over this turf course. She will have to rate just off of the pace Thursday but looks like the one to beat. PROMISES BROKEN has never raced on grass but has the speed to make the lead from the inside post.
4th race
AIR STRIKE has been training well for Steve Asmussen and should be ready to fire in his debut with Shaun Bridgmohan aboard. INCA CHIEF ran well when dropped in for a tag last out. He moves back up in class Thursday and is the one to catch. SOARING BIRD fits with these.
5th race
MR. COMPASS is a lightly raced 4-year-old in the capable hands of Maker. He broke his maiden in his first try on the dirt in Indiana and can make it two in a row Thursday. SILVER GIANT was a well-beaten third last out but drops in class and has the speed to be on or near the lead throughout. He is the one to catch. I AM READY AGAIN ran poorly last out but is capable of better.
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6th race
SILVER DUST comes off of a couple of solid races on the dirt and is bred to like the move to the turf course. His best would make him a winner for Calhoun with Lanerie back aboard. CONVICT PIKE is proven on the grass and Brian Hernandez Jr. picks up the mount for Rusty Arnold. MISSPENT YOUTH returns to the grass after an even effort last out and is a solid threat.
7th race
MINES AND MAGIC is a graded stakes placed runner from the barn of Victoria Oliver. She drops into an allowance race Thursday and appears to be in a good spot to pick up the win with Robby Albarado aboard. PUT DA BLAME ON ME beat the top pick when they hooked up here last year. She has the speed to make the lead from the inside post and will be tough in her third start back after a layoff. ASTROLLINTHEPARK just missed in a race here on opening night and has to be respected.
8th race
BLUE LUTE has run well in all three of his starts this year. He has enough tactical speed to overcome the outside post and rates the slight edge with Hernandez picking up the mount for Troy Wismer. FOUR KNIGHTS should get a good trip from the inside post and is the one to beat. ECLIPSED MOON fits in here.