919/920 Kansas City at Detroit (-145, 8.5)
Jorge Lopez and Matt Boyd will get it started up at Comerica Park. The juice on the total is on the under, which makes perfect sense. Kansas City has a strong defensive outfield for this big ballpark and Boyd has been outstanding this season.
Lopez is a little bit of a positive regression candidate to me. I don’t see a 20% HR/FB% sticking around all that long. He’s got a 5.08 ERA with a 5.23 FIP and a 4.45 xFIP on the young season. Lefties have destroyed him in the small sample size of 68 PA with a .333/.382/.683 slash and a .440 wOBA. Righties have a .217/.304/.377 slash with a .297 wOBA in 79 PA. The script was flipped in last year’s small sample size, so I’m not entirely sure whether or not the early-season returns are legit or not.
What I do know is that the Tigers are very right-handed-heavy. Lopez allowed a .388 BABIP to righties last season, but did have better K and BB numbers against RHB than LHB. I’d like to think that’s a sign that this season’s returns are probably more sustainable than last year’s.
Lopez has struggled lately. He’s allowed 13 runs in his last 16.2 innings of work. But, he’s also got an 18/6 K/BB ratio over those starts. He’s had some really unfortunate BABIP luck and also allowed three homers to the White Sox on April 16.
Boyd heads into this outing with a 3.13/2.21/3.24 pitcher slash in his 37.1 innings of work. The southpaw struck out 23 over his first two starts. He struck out nine last time out to get back on track in that department after only recording three strikeouts against the Red Sox. Boyd has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start so far and has only allowed two home runs.
This is a favorable matchup for Boyd against the Royals. They have drawn a lot of walks against lefties, but Boyd only has 10 of those out of 151 batters. The Royals don’t hit for any power against lefties and don’t have much contact quality either with a .261 BABIP.
Lopez has allowed a .188/.278/.292 slash the first time through with a .257 wOBA. The wheels fall off after that point, as he’s allowed all seven of his home runs as he gets deeper into the game. Boyd has also been great the first time through with a .253 wOBA against. The second time through has been a little rougher, but he’s been excellent the third time through.
I mentioned this on yesterday’s edition of The Bettor’s Box that the Tigers are making some huge gains on high-velocity contact of late. Things are really getting better for them and they actually rank eighth in wOBA over the last two weeks. Lopez does have a knack for walking guys and the Tigers have been very patient this season.
Detroit has the better lineup, the better pitcher, and the better bullpen in this game. This is a tad chalky, but Lopez has had problems with both his command and his control this season. I’m on the Tigers here.
Pick: Detroit (-145) over Kansas City
909/910 NY Mets at Milwaukee (-131, 8.5)
The Mets and Brewers meet at Miller Park tonight to kick off a weekend set. The target for Christian Yelich was to return over the weekend, so we’re likely to see a move on the Brewers when the lineup comes out.
Steven Matz gets the pill for the Mets. He’ll be opposed by Brandon Woodruff. Matz draws a Brewers lineup that ranks 10th in wOBA against lefties on the season. Milwaukee got off to a blistering start offensively, but has cooled off since. Matz comes into this start with a 3.68 ERA, a 4.73 FIP, and a 3.95 xFIP in his 29.1 innings of work. He’s always had a bit of a home run problem with a 15.8% HR/FB%, so his 20% mark this season isn’t that outlandish. His .237 BABIP against looks ripe for regression to me, so those home runs could be even more hurtful as we move forward.
Matz saw a lot of success last September throwing his slider more. He hasn’t carried that over to this season and is even throwing fewer curveballs and more fastballs. I’ve talked about this before, but I’m really not a fan of guys throwing more fastballs. It just opens up the probability of hard contact and that seems counterintuitive to me.
Woodruff throws a lot of fastballs, too, but he’s mixed in more sliders and changeups this season. He’s a positive regression candidate with a 5.17 ERA, a 3.60 FIP, and a 3.65 xFIP. He’s got a .381 BABIP that shouldn’t hang around for long, as he’s posted pretty average BABIPs at all of his minor league stops and in his previous MLB work. I like what I’m seeing out of him this season. He’s had some bad luck in higher leverage situations with that high BABIP, but he’s definitely a guy in line for some improvements.
Josh Hader didn’t work yesterday. Woodruff is something of a five-and-fly or a 5+ guy, so having Hader available is a real big help for the Brewers. Not only is he available, but he’s well-rested and I’m sure he’s been able to use some sides to his advantage to figure out this homer issue. Junior Guerra is good to go after throwing 40 pitches on Tuesday. He’s been a contact management wizard this season.
The Mets bullpen is rested with yesterday’s complete game from Thor, but they’ve had all sorts of issues and Jeurys Familia is now on the DL.
I’m all about the Brewers today. Yelich should return, so we’re getting a good price here and I see Woodruff as a positive regression guy.
Pick: Milwaukee (-131) over Mets
OTHER PICKS FRIDAY:
Twins-Yankees Under 7.5
Arizona-Colorado Under 11
Braves -158 over Marlins