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Five Top NBA Win Total Best Bets


Oct 15, 2018 EST


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The 2018-19 NBA season is nearing, the future odds and season props are already available on all relevant sportsbooks, and some look like sure shots to get some decent wages. Betting on the win totals is always interesting, but sometimes, it should be done as soon as possible, as the lines and odds will be adjusted in further days. Let’s take a look at best bets for win totals in the 2018-19 campaign.

INDIANA PACERS

The Pacers had a wonderful 2017-18 season, finishing 7th in the East with a 48-34 record, while they were beaten by the Cavs in seven games in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Victor Oladipo earned the Most Improved Player of the Year Award averaging 23.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game, and becoming the true team leader. The Pacers kept their talented core, adding several experienced players to their rosters, so Indiana is aiming 50 wins in this term.

The versatile guard Tyreke Evans arrived from Memphis where he was excellent last year with 19.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. Evans could be a key addition for the Pacers who should improve their game and surpass the 47-win mark. Indiana will battle the Bucks for the Central Division title, and at +155 odds, the Pacers are an interesting betting pick. However, wagering on the over on win totals should be the best solution, as the Indiana Pacers could be one of the pleasant surprises in the upcoming 2018-19 NBA season.

2017-18 W/L Trends:

27-14 at home, 21-20 on the road
10-6 in Central Division, 32-20 in the Eastern Conference
11-2 in games decided by 3 or fewer points

The Pick: Over 47.5 at -105

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

The Spurs have finally put an end to a Kawhi Leonard drama, and with DeMar DeRozan in the starting lineup, I don’t see how they could be worse this season than a year ago when Gregg Popovich’s boys had a 47-35 record.

Manu Ginobili retired after 16 years with the Spurs, whilst Tony Parker moved to the Charlotte Hornets, so this is officially the start of the new era in San Antonio. And, there’s no better way to start a journey than with entering the post-season at -175.

The competition in the Western Conference seems tougher than ever, but the Spurs look up to the task. DeRozan will have a chance to work with one of the best coaches which should improve his game, and the four-time All-Star will have a strong motive to prove his worth, as he didn’t want to leave the Raptors this summer.

LaMarcus Aldridge was brilliant last year averaging 23.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, and if he replicates those performances, the Spurs should outstrip the 45-win mark. Betting on the win totals looks pretty attractive here, while the Spurs are +800 underdogs to win the Southwest Division alongside the Houston Rockets.

2017-18 W/L Trends:

33-8 at home, 14-27 on the road
9-7 in Southwest Division, 29-23 in the Western Conference
35-24 before the All-Star Game

The Pick: Over 45.5 at -140

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

In the last five years, the Washington Wizards are a strong factor in the East, but they just couldn’t past the semi-finals, while last year, they lost to the Raptors in the first round (4-2) after finishing eighth in the conference with a 43-39 record.

John Wall had a lot of injury problems, missing 41 games during the regular season which was a big issue for the head coach Scott Brooks. Also, the Wizards needed more power in the paint, so this summer, they acquired the eight-time All-Star and one of the best defensive centers in the league Dwight Howard.

After a solid season in Charlotte where he averaged 16.6 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks, but reportedly ruined the mood in the locker room, Howard will try to make something great with the Wizards.

Playing alongside John Wall and Bradley Beal will be a big challenge, and the Wizards are strong -190 favorites to win the Southeast Division. Reaching the NBA Finals at +2200 will be a difficult task, but if they stay healthy and gel the things on time, the Washington Wizards should surpass the 45-win mark which is one of the most intriguing futures picks.

2017-18 W/L Trends:

23-18 at home, 20-21 on the road
8-8 in Southeast Division, 28-24 in the Eastern Conference
33-24 before the All-Star Game

The Pick: Over 45.5 at -115

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

The Thunder cut the wages this summer, trading Carmelo Anthony to the Hawks in exchange for the dynamic point guard Dennis Schroder. It could be an exciting move for the fans in Oklahoma City after the last season’s disappointment, as Melo, Russell Westbrook, and Paul George couldn’t play as a team, losing to the Jazz in six games in the Western Conference First Round. The Thunder finished fourth in the conference with a 48-34 record, and second in the Northwest Division behind the Trail Blazers.

The upcoming season should be less turbulent with Paul George settled in the area, as the five-time All-Star dropped his numbers in the first season in Oklahoma City, averaging 21.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists per game on 43.0% shooting from the field. In his last season with the Pacers, George was tallying 23.7 points per game on 46.1 shooting from the field.

With Westbrook and Schroder together on the floor, the Thunder’s opponents will have to protect the paint, allowing more open looks for George and other players. On the other side of the ball, Billy Donovan’s boys play tough defense, so I think they will win a couple of games more than they did in the previous campaign.

The Thunder are -2500 favorites to reach the playoffs and the first contenders to win the Northwest Division at +200 odds. With the stiff competition in the Northwest, betting on the win totals looks like the best option, as every game will be important in the playoff race.

2017-18 W/L Trends:

27-14 at home, 21-20 on the road
5-11 in Northwest Division, 28-24 in the Western Conference
8-10 in games decided by 3 or fewer points

The Pick: Over 49.5 games at -130

ORLANDO MAGIC

Although the Magic won just 25 games last year, finishing 14th in the Eastern Conference, the bookmakers consider them as -120 favorites to win 31 games or fewer during the 2018-19 campaign. It sounds like a decent offer, as the Magic didn’t make any significant moves to fortify their roster this summer, besides drafting Mohamed Bamba with the 6th overall pick. The 20-year old big man is a great prospect, but the Magic will need more to avoid another disappointing campaign.

Last year, the Orlando Magic had the sixth-worst offensive rating (105.2), and without a serious solution at the point guard, I don’t see how they will improve offensively. The Magic’s backcourt lacks talent, so Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon will continue to lead the play. On the other side, the Magic had the 18th-best defensive rating (110.1) last season. If they continue to improve defensively, the Orlando Magic could grab a few wins more than in the 2017-18 season, but I don’t believe they will surpass the 30-win mark.

2017-18 W/L Trends

17-24 at home, 8-33 on the road
5-11 in Southeast Division, 15-37 in the Eastern Conference
18-39 before the All-Star Game

The Pick: Under 31.5 at -120


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