The Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints kick start Week 13 Thursday night in a matchup filled with question marks. How will Dallas perform without coach Mike McCarthy and a handful of assistants on the sidelines?
Will Taysom Hill be able to provide the spark the Saints’ offense desperately needs? In a game with so many unique variables, getting comfortable with either side is a challenge.
The more appealing bet to make is on the total. Under’s have been trending recently in prime-time games, hitting 8-1 last 9. During that same period, Thursday Night Football has produced an average of only 31.3 combined points.
TNF: Dallas at New Orleans (Under 47.5)
I understand how the oddsmakers get to the number. Dallas is 4-1 to the under in its last five with an average total of 52. New Orleans is 4-1 to the over with an average closing total of 44. This week they open in the middle (48) and it gets bet down to 47.5. The number is still 3.5 points above average, considering teams are scoring 22 points a game.
In the last five weeks, the Saints are 31st in EPA per play. That’s below the Detroit Lions. Alvin Kamara has been ruled out again and have Hill at QB.