Rice at USC
LINE USC -32.5
It’s not possible to go more unabashed fanboy than I did over USC these past seven months.
The unbelievable array of talent brought in by Lincoln Riley might have been the most underappreciated and underanalyzed big thing that happened this offseason – seriously, it’s as if no one quite realizes the all-star two-deep USC now has.
Do I believe in this USC thing or not? I’ve totally bought in, even though giving away 32.5 to a potted plant would scare me.
NC State at East Carolina
LINE NC State -11.5
ATS PICK NC State
I’m very well aware that East Carolina is one of those programs that rises up at home once in a while and screws things up for the big name team.
QB Holton Ahlers has been around for forever, the Pirate team that went bowling last year is better this season, and …
I believe in NC State.
I can’t very well go around screaming that Clemson is the star of the ACC – more on that in a moment – NC State is 2, and everyone else gets lumped together if I don’t go with the Pack -11.5 now.
If you really think this defense is that good, and you should, assume the season starts strong, even on the road, with a great performance.
Houston at UTSA
LINE Houston -4.5
ATS PICK Houston
Blah, blah, blah – Houston is going to go to the New Year’s Six, it might be this year’s Cincinnati, it’s going to blow up before going to the Big 12, and on and on and on.
I couldn’t have talked up Houston any more than I did this whole offseason.
UTSA is loaded with experience and talent – even without star RB Sincere McCormick – it’s a home game, and the place should have the energy to get both sides fired up.
But it”s only 4.5 points – I had better believe at that line.
Any Group of Five program that can even think about being this year’s big thing shouldn’t have a problem taking down the Roadrunners – as good as they are – by at least a touchdown without breathing hard.
Notre Dame at Ohio State
LINE Ohio State -17
ATS PICK Notre Dame
Oh Notre Dame. That Little Engine That Could program travels to Columbus to collect its paycheck, catch a beating, and leave.
It’ll be a miracle if the team even gets off the bus, right?
No, I don’t deep down somewhere in my soul believe that the Irish will pull this off – not like I sort of do when it comes to the underdog with the next pick – but I do think it’s solid enough in all phases to hold up and make this a fight.
The Buckeyes will win, but I’m having a hard time fully believing it’ll be a total wipeout – the Irish lines are too good and the secondary too solid – until it happens.
Georgia vs Oregon
LINE Georgia -17
ATS PICK Oregon
As I’ve said time and again over these last few weeks, if Georgia comes out and rolls 44-2, I’ll eat it. Obviously, a rocking win by the defending national champs would hardly be shocking. But …
Do I believe that Oregon has the best linebacking corps in the country? It’s at least close.
Do I believe the lines are good enough to hold up, and Stetson Bennett has a three-interception game inside of him just waiting to come out? Yeah, and maybe.
Do I like that Oregon is a 17-point underdog, even though it might just be the best team in the Pac-12? Love it
Middle Tennessee at James Madison
LINE James Madison -5
James Madison goes from being a dominant force in the FCS world to hosting Middle Tennessee at home to kick off life in the Sun Belt.
Besides the Blue Raiders needing to reboot a bit in a few spots, and even with James Madison still trying to get everything together depth-wise to handle the rigors of what this all is, 1) the home team here is better, and 2) the place should be a blast with all the energy of the first game in the big leagues.
Texas State at Nevada
LINES Nevada -1
ATS PICK Nevada
What, you didn’t dig the way Nevada had to hang on for dear life in Week 0 against a New Mexico State team that just got obliterated by Minnesota?
This is a gutted Wolf Pack squad with former head coach Jay Norvell leaving this offseason and taking the offense, a slew of key players, and the team’s mojo with him to Colorado State.
What, you didn’t dig the 78 passing yards and 3.4 yards per attempt by Nevada against the Aggies? You’re afraid Texas State might have the same success defensively?
Texas State has been a weird team lately in early games.
If gave Baylor fits in a 29-20 loss last year, pushed SMU in 2020, and should’ve beaten Boston College a few weeks later. That shouldn’t matter when it comes to this season, the lack of a run defense and not enough downfield passing upside is a concern.
I like that it’s in Reno. I like that Nevada got to work out the kinks against New Mexico State. I love the potential of the running game taking over.
The combination of Toa Tau and Devonte Lee is good enough to take control right away and have the ball for about 35 minutes – Texas State won’t care about time of possession.
This went from 10.5 when it opened to just -1 in most places.
Miami OH at Kentucky
LINE Kentucky -17
ATS PICK Kentucky
Hey MAC, how you livin’?
Seriously, peace and love to all of you who had Oklahoma State and now have to live with that monster Central Michigan ATS comeback in a brutal defensive performance.
Akron needed everything in the bag to get by St. Francis. Ball State wasn’t anything more than a speed bump in a 59-10 loss to Tennessee, and Northern Illinois struggled way, way, way too much in.a 34-27 win over Eastern Illinois.
Yeah, Toledo beat LIU 37-0. The spread was 47.5.
So you’ll forgive me if I’m not all that jacked about the idea of going with Miami University.
Kentucky doesn’t have star RB Chris Rodriguez, and the RedHawks might just be the best team in the MAC if everything breaks right.
I don’t care. I don’t care that UK beat a miserable Central Michigan by just 15 to start the 2018 season. I don’t care that it was a fight to get by Southern Miss to start 2017. I don’t care that the program struggled in opener after opener until it rim-rocked ULM 45-10 last season.
Love the Kentucky defense, love the style against what MU does, love the SEC team at home against a MAC team only giving away 17 points.