College Looking For an Angle
Buffalo U @
Bowling Green
It’s been all downhill for the Falcons since HC Dino Babers left before the 2015 Camellia Bowl. BGSU got smoked by Georgia Southern 58-27 in Montgomery, beginning a quick descent into the abyss. Beginning with that result, the Falcs are 14-37 vs. the spread into this week, and have been non-competitive for HC Scot Loeffler in two 35+-point losses to begin this season. Loeffler has only managed marks of 3-11 SU and vs. the line since a year ago, consistent with the performance of predecessor Paul Haynes (with Carl Pelini serving as interim HC late in 2018). Meanwhile, Buffalo is now 28-12-3 vs. the line the last 3+ season for HC Lance Leipold after last Tuesday’s 42-10 romp past Miami-Ohio. The Bulls have also won and covered the last three vs. BGSU, including last year’s 49-7 turkey shoot on Thanksgiving Friday at UB Stadium. The Bulls ran roughshod with 455 YR led by Jaret Patterson’s whopping 298 yards. Meanwhile, the Falcs were held to only 187 yards as they ran for the bus in the season-ender. Note that BGSU is also just 2-11 vs. the line its last 13 as a Doyt Perry Stadium dog.
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| Buffalo U @ Bowling Green 11-17 |
It’s been all downhill for the Falcons since HC Dino Babers left before the 2015 Camellia Bowl. BGSU got smoked by Georgia Southern 58-27 in Montgomery, beginning a quick descent into the abyss. Beginning with that result, the Falcs are 14-37 vs. the spread into this week, and have been non-competitive for HC Scot Loeffler in two 35+-point losses to begin this season. Loeffler has only managed marks of 3-11 SU and vs. the line since a year ago, consistent with the performance of predecessor Paul Haynes (with Carl Pelini serving as interim HC late in 2018). Meanwhile, Buffalo is now 28-12-3 vs. the line the last 3+ season for HC Lance Leipold after last Tuesday’s 42-10 romp past Miami-Ohio. The Bulls have also won and covered the last three vs. BGSU, including last year’s 49-7 turkey shoot on Thanksgiving Friday at UB Stadium. The Bulls ran roughshod with 455 YR led by Jaret Patterson’s whopping 298 yards. Meanwhile, the Falcs were held to only 187 yards as they ran for the bus in the season-ender. Note that BGSU is also just 2-11 vs. the line its last 13 as a Doyt Perry Stadium dog. | ||||||
| Akron @ Kent State 11-17 |
The “Wagon Wheel” is at stake in this matchup between two nearby MAC rivals separated by only 14 miles. Kent State won the “Wheel” last season by a 26-3 count, the fourth straight Golden Flash spread cover (though first outright series success since 2014) in this matchup. Kent State was paced by a 233-yard rushing onslaught led by RB Will Matthews and his 126 YR, with QB Dustin Crum adding another 82 YR as well as completing 16 of 21 passes. After last week’s loss (but rare cover) against Ohio U, the Zips are now 0-14 SU (and 2-12 against the line) since HC Tom Arth arrived from Chattanooga last year. Akron got rare cover vs. Ohio to improve to 2-12 vs. line for Arth, though Zips still 0-14 SU since LY. Meanwhile, the Golden Flashes are now on an 8-2 spread uptick after their 62-point explosion last Tuesday against Bowling Green. | ||||||
| No Illinois @ Ball State 11-18 |
Another indicator of NIU’s downturn since HC Thomas Hammock arrived a year ago was the 27-20 Huskies loss to Ball State last October 5. That came after NIU had won ten straight (and covered seven in a row) against the Cards. Ball State won with a basic offensive scheme that compensated for a low-risk approach which saw QB Drew Plitt complete only 4 passes for 34 yards, but prevail thanks to a grinding infantry that pounded for 235 yards, featuring 157 yards from punishing, 229-lb. RB Caleb Huntley, who also scored a pair of TDs, one of those a 45-yard burst in the 4th Q to break a 17-17 tie. In a recurring theme for the Huskies since last season, they were hurt by turnovers, coughing it up three times during the afternoon. | ||||||
| New Mexico @ Air Force 11-20 |
This Mountain West Mountain Division rivalry had a curious twist the past eight seasons with Bob Davie’s New Mexico enjoying some surprising success. Especially against the spread as the Lobos covered 7 of the 8 meetings, and winning three of five outright between 2013-17. Davie’s understanding of option football, gleaned from past experience working underneath coaches such as Jackie Sherrill and Lou Holtz, helped the Lobos cope with Troy Calhoun’s creative Air Force version of the option. It’s worth noting that New Mexico’s new regime under first-year HC Danny Gonzales includes d.c. Rocky Long, also with plenty of experience dealing with the option throughout his career, and a winner of seven straight against the Falcons while San Diego’s State’s HC the past nine seasons. Lobos in process of playing their entire season on the road with Covid restrictions forcing them out of Albuquerque entirely. The team has temporarily based its operations in Las Vegas at UNLV’s Sam Boyd Stadium (where the Rebels don’t play anymore) and where UNM hosted Nevada last Saturday. | ||||||
| Syracuse @ Louisville 11-20 |
Except for a 54-23 loss the Cards suffered at the Carrier Dome late in the 2018 campaign, which would prove to be Bobby Petrino’s final game as coach before getting pink-slipped two days afterward, the ‘Ville has won and covered the other five series meetings since 2014. Last year the Cards romped at home, 56-34, thanks to a pair of tremendous efforts. One of those was from QB Micale (Malik) Cunningham, who accounted for a staggering 6 TDs (five passing, one running); the other was from RB Javian Hawkins, who blasted for 233 YR as the Cards would numb the Orange with 608 total yards of offense. The ‘Cuse racked up 510 yards. | ||||||
| Iowa @ Penn State 11-21 |
Penn State has had a bumpy start to 2020 but recent history has been good against Iowa, with the Nittany Lions winning the last four meetings. The last three years have all been competitive battles decided by less than a TD, including Penn State’s grinding 17-12 win at Iowa City last October 12. The Nittany Lions had to hang on after the Hawkeyes cut the margin to five points with just 2:31 to play when Nate Stanley hit Brandon Smith for a 33-yard Iowa score. A 2-point conversion, pass, however, was intercepted, and after the Hawkeyes eschewed an onside kick, Penn State kept possession thanks to a 3rd-down run by Noah Cain, to run out the clock. The Nittany Lions prevailed despite gaining just 296 yards, while some Iowa backers joked that their team deserved to lose simply because of the garish yellow/gold outfits that Iowa wore instead of their traditional Pittsburgh Steelers-like look! | ||||||
| Michigan @ Rutgers 11-21 |
Since Jim Harbaugh showed no mercy on Rutgers in 2016 and humiliated the Scarlet Knights, 78-0, the Wolverines have covered only 1 of the next 3 matchups, though no result was closer than 21 points. That also includes Harbaugh’s 52-0 win last September 28 in Ann Arbor, which turned out to be the final game for Chris Ash as the coach at Rutgers. Assistant Nunzio Campanile was promoted from the staff and served as interim HC for the rest of the season. | ||||||
| Wisconsin @ Northwestern 11-21 |
The Wildcats have played the Badgers tough, even when outmanned like last September 28 at Madison. But as a 24-point dog, NU gave Wiscy all sorts of trouble at Camp Randall before losing honorably, 24-15. The Cats made the score closer in the 4th Q by cutting into a 24-3 deficit, but they probably shouldn’t have been that far behind as they held the Badgers to only 243 yards of offense and were victimized by a pair of Wiscy defensive TDs, including a 68-yard interception return by Noah Burks in the 4th Q that put the effectively put the game out of reach. Note that NU has covered the last three and five of the last six meetings. | ||||||
| UCLA @ Oregon 11-21 |
Chip Kelly returns to Eugene, though he also brought his first UCLA team to Autzen Stadium two years ago, losing a 42-21 verdict in 2018. Before moving to the NFL and the Eagles in 2013, Chip coached the Ducks from 2009-12, compiling a 46-7 SU record in the process, with a berth in the national title game in 2010 (last-second 22-19 loss to Cam Newton’s Auburn) and a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin the next season. Kelly was promoted from offensive coordinator to replace Mike Bellotti, who moved up to the AD job after he resigned following the 2008 season. | ||||||
| Boise State @ Hawaii 11-21 |
Rematch of last December’s Mountain West title game at Boise won and covered by the Broncos on their blue rug, 31-10. The Broncos had earlier won a 59-37 shootout on the same Albertson’s Stadium field on October 12, posting 518 yards of offense in the process, but used their defense in the rematch, holding Hawaii gunslinger QB Cole McDonald without a TD pass. Note that the Rainbow Warriors are only 11-25 vs. the line at Aloha Stadium since 2015, spanning regimes of Norm Chow, Nick Rolovich, and Todd Graham, who won but failed to cover his first game in Honolulu on Nov. 7, outlasting New Mexico 39-33. | ||||||
| UNLV @ Colorado State 11-21 |
CSU has now won and covered the last four meetings vs. UNLV, dating to 2011. Last season, in the final Mike Bobo vs. Tony Sanchez coaching matchup, the Rams rolled in Fort Collins, 37-17, as CSU bolted to a 24-0 halftime edge and cruised home. The 428-yard Rams attack was paced by QB Patrick O’Brien, who passed for 234 yards. | ||||||
| San Diego State @ Nevada 11-21 |
The Wolf Pack is on its first win streak (2 games!) over SDSU since joining the Mountain West in 2012. After an exciting 28-24 win at Reno in 2018, the Pack ground out a 17-13 win at SDCCU Stadium last November 9. Nevada entered the game as 17-point dog, but resorted to some clever trickery to pull the upset, as a 50-yard flea-flicker pass from WR Elijah Cooks to fellow wideout Brendan O’Leary-Orange set up Devonte Lee’s go-ahead 1-yard TD smash with 10:31 to play for the winning points. Some sleight-of-hand was required on a nice in which the teams combined to gain barely 2 yards per carry on 67 collective rush attempts in a defense-oriented battle. | ||||||
| Clemson @ Florida State 11-21 |
Not long ago, this used to be a big game! But not lately, as Dabo Swinney’s Clemson has now won the last five SU vs. Noles, and covered last three. The last two years, the combined score has been 104-24, with the 26-point favorite Tigers strolled to a 45-14 victory in Death Valley last October 12. Dabo called off the dogs early in the 3rd Q after the lead had mushroomed to 42-0, with then-backup (now Duke) QB Chase Brice in for almost the entirety of the second half after Trevor Lawrence pitched 3 TD passes in the first 30 minutes. As a frosh in 2018, Lawrence had fired 4 TD passes in Clemson’s 59-10 runaway at Doak Campbell Stadium. | ||||||
| Washington State @ Stanford 11-21 |
Recent series history has been all Wazzu, as Mike Leach’s Cougars won the last four and covered the spread in the last five meetings. Last year, Leach’s Cougs rolled 49-22 at Pullman on a cold November 16 in what would nonetheless prove an aerial circus featuring WSU QB Anthony Gordon (who completed 44 of 60 passes for 520 yards and 5 TDs), while counterpart Davis Mills would set a Stanford school record with 496 pass yards. The Cougs would score the final 24 points of the game to pull away. | ||||||
| Arkansas St @ Texas State 11-21 |
This Sun Belt series has been all Arkansas State lately, as the Red Wolves have won the last five meetings outright (covering four of those), all margins 18 or more. That included a 38-14 win at Jonesboro last October 26 when ASU dominated the second half by a 21-0 count, turning a close 17-14 game at halftime into a cakewalk. Texas State could only gain 225 yards for the evening and could not sustain a drive in the second half as the Red Wolves pulled clear, with RB Marcel Murray scoring twice en route to 114 YR. | ||||||
| Kentucky @ Alabama 11-21 |
These sides compete in different divisions of the SEC and do not often face one another. As such, this will be the first meeting since 2016, when Bama won 34-6 at Tuscaloosa. The only other clash in the past decade came in 2013 at Lexington when the top-ranked Tide rolled by a 48-7 count. The series rivalry favors Bama by a whopping 37-2-1, with the last Kentucky win coming in 1997 by a 40-34 count in overtime in what was Gene Stallings’ last year as Tide HC, and the first year for Hal Mumme at UK. That was the Cats’ first series win in 75 years! There were six lead changes that afternoon in Lexington, with UK QB Tim Couch firing 4 TD passes. Though not annual rivalry, there is a Bear Bryant link as he coached at both schools. | ||||||
| Mississippi @ Texas A&M 11-21 |
Though A&M has won and covered the last three meetings, the games have been competitive, all decided by seven points or fewer, with spread verdicts decided by a mere point the past two years. That would include A&M’s hard-fought 24-17 win at Oxford as a 6-point favorite last October 19, a game in which the Rebs led 14-10 midway into the 3rd Q. The game would flip, however, on a 62-yard TD fumble return by the Ag’s Buddy Johnson that would stake Jimbo Fisher’s team to a 17-14 lead. Then, as Ole Miss attempted a tying field goal on its next possession, A&M’s Justin Madubuike blocked a 35-yard FG try by Luke Logan that would have tied the game. In the final minute, the Rebs were driving deep into Aggie territory before settling for another Logan FG from 35 yards, that wasn’t blocked, but it only cut the final margin to 87 points. | ||||||
| Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh U 11-21 |
VPI was very inspired last November 23 when hosting Pitt. Not only was it the home finale of 2019 for the Hokies, but it was “Bud Foster Day” as the long-serving Tech defensive coordinator was coaching his last game at Lane Stadium. Duly inspired, the stop unit responded with its second straight shutout win (Georgia Tech had been blanked the week before), 28-0, holding the Panthers to a mere 8 first downs and 177 yards of offense. It also marked a turnaround of sorts in a series that, pointspread-wise, at least, had been dominated by Pitt the previous five years, with the Panthers covering the spread in each of those games. | ||||||
| Wake Forest @ Duke 11-21 |
The last two seasons, this matchup has been all Wake, which has won and covered both by double-digit margins. Last year it was 39-27 at Winston-Salem, but what they’re still talking about on Tobacco Road was the Deacs taking the Blue Devils to the woodshed in a 59-7 beatdown two years ago in Durham. Wake roared to 517 yards of offense that day but saved most of the punishment for the ground, with physical Cade Carney battering Duke’s defense with 233 rush yards. That opened up the pass lanes for QB Jamie Newman, who tossed 4 TD passes. In last year’s 39-27 Wake win, it was Newman at it again, though this time more with his legs as he gained 144 rush yards. | ||||||
| Illinois @ Nebraska 11-21 |
Nebraska HC Scott Frost is 2-0 against only one Big Ten foe–Illinois–since taking over the Huskers’ job in 2018. The win wasn’t quite good enough for a spread cover last September 21 at Champaign-Urbana in a 42-38 win, however, as the 13-point underdog Fighting Illini gave a hint of improved performances to come later in the season. In fact, Nebraska had to rally from a 35-21 deficit in the 3rd Q, finally going ahead to stay on Wan’Dale Robinson’s 1-yard TD run with 8 minutes to play. Though the game should not have been that close, as the Huskers hurt themselves with four lost fumbles, and almost wasted a whopping 674-299 yardage edge. Frost had an easier time of it vs. Lovie Smith in 2018 at Lincoln when Nebraska rolled, 54-35. | ||||||