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Archived: Chargers-Saints Monday Night Breakdown


Oct 12, 2020 EST


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The Los Angeles Chargers and New Orleans Saints will face off at Mercedes-Benz Superdome for a Week 5 interconference showdown on Monday night, Oct. 12. The game will mark the 13th meeting in a series the Chargers lead, 7-5. The most recent game between the teams unfolded in Week 4 of the 2016 season, a contest the Saints prevailed in by a 35-34 margin at the Chargers’ then-home of Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. The back-and-forth affair saw current New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees throw for a modest 207 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, and receiver Michael Thomas, then a rookie, bring in four of nine targets for 44 yards and one of those two scores.

New Orleans remains heavy favorites over a Chargers team that has seen rookie quarterback Justin Herbert play very well since unexpectedly taking the reins of the starting job in Week 2.

Both squads have seen potential wins slip out of their grasp in high-scoring games recently. Two weeks ago, the Saints dropped a wild 37-30 decision to the Packers, their most recent game in the Superdome. New Orleans was able to bounce back in Week 4, however, handing the Lions a 35-29 defeat at Ford Field. Brees played a third straight game without the services of his top target in Thomas but threw for 246 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

The Chargers fell to the Buccaneers by a 38-31 margin on the road in Week 4, their third straight single-digit defeat following 23-20 and 21-16 losses to the Chiefs and Panthers, respectively. However, Herbert handled himself very well against a tough Tampa Bay defense that he faced without speed threat Mike Williams (hamstring). The Oregon product fell just 10 yards short of a third consecutive 300-yard performance.

The projected total of 50 points would be notable on many weeks. However, it’s actually just in the mid-range in a Week 5 where plenty of offense was expected. Nevertheless, oddsmakers appear to be expecting Herbert to continue impressing. In addition, LA’s defensive breakdowns through the air against Tom Brady in Week 4 also seem to be factoring in.

CHARGERS VS. SAINTS MATCHUP

The Saints will again be without star WR Michael Thomas. Thomas hasn’t played since Week 1 but he will miss this game due to a reason other than injury. The receiver had an altercation with safety CJ Gardner-Johnson at practice and has been disciplined by the team.

RB Alvin Kamara has been the true glue holding the offense together and already boasts 557 total yards and seven total TDs on the season. The Chargers set up as tantalizing targets for a player of Kamara’s skill set. Los Angeles is yielding 4.3 yards per carry to RBs and a 29-154-2 receiving line to the position as well.

The inexperienced Herbert will have the luxury of taking on the legendary Brees in an empty Superdome. He will also get to face off against a depleted secondary. The Saints have ruled out cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (shoulder) and Justin Hardee (hamstring).

Herbert could have Williams back in the fold, too. The fourth-year speedster practiced Friday and therefore appears to be trending in the right direction in terms of suiting up Monday night. It’s also worth noting the positional matchup for talented tight end Hunter Henry, who’s been a bit underused thus far. It shapes up nicely as New Orleans has allowed the second-most receptions (32), receiving yards (330) and touchdowns (five) to the position through four games.

The Bolts will look to make up for the loss of Austin Ekeler with a tandem consisting of impressive rookie Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson. Both appear to be serviceable receivers out of the backfield and have upside as runners. Their best chance at success may come through the air, however. The Saints are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry to RBs but have surrendered a 20-121-2 line to them through the air.

WEEK 5 MNF BETTING BREAKDOWN

There has been some major movement on this spread over the past day or two. The line opened at Saints -8 at week ago, went to Saints -7 for most of the day on Sunday, and then moved to Saints -6 for a brief period Monday morning. Within a half hour of it getting to -6, it had swung to Saints -7.5, and then quickly swung back again to Saints -6.5.

The news of Thomas being out obviously played a factor in bettors starting to back the Bolts, but the likelihood of the Saints getting some of their banged up defensive players dressed for this game may have helped inch the line the other way again Monday morning.

  • The Chargers are 3-1 (75.0%) against the spread this season, including 2-0 as a road team and 1-1 in interconference matchups. The Over is 1-3 (25.0%) in Los Angeles’s games this season, including 1-1 in its road games and 1-1 in its interconference matchups.
  • The Saints are 2-2 against the spread this season, including 1-1 as a home team and 0-1 in interconference matchups. The Over is 4-0 in New Orleans’s games this season, including 2-0 in its home games and 1-0 in its interconference matchups.

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