Both teams took it easy last Sunday, locked into their playoff seeds before their respective kickoffs. Saving something for this week seemed a good idea for each, as neither has enjoyed significant postseason success in recent years. Granted, Houston has won three times in the Wild Card round since 2011, twice beating the playoff-jinxed Bengals, and also topping an injury-depleted Oakland in 2016 when the Raiders were forced to go with rookie QB Connor Cook after Derek Carr’s leg injury.
But the Texans have never advanced past the Division Round, and twice under HC Bill O’Brien have not even cleared the first hurdle, including last year when Andrew Luck and the Colts won 21-7 at NRG Stadium. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s playoff drought has lasted roughly a generation, having only once qualified for the postseason this millennium, losing two years ago in the first round at Jacksonville in a 10-3 snoozer. It’s been 24 years since the Bills actually won a playoff game, when Marv Levy was still coaching in 1995 and beat Miami 37-22 in the Wild Card round. Interestingly, current Bills HC Sean McDermott (who broke the franchise playoff drought in 2017) is Buffalo’s tenth different HC since Levy retired following 1997. Wade Phillips, in 1999 (the Music City miracle…remember?), is the only other post-Levy Bills HC aside from McDermott to reach the playoffs!
If there is a question about Buffalo, it’s if the Bills have enough offense to cause much trouble in the playoffs. Buffalo hasn’t scored more than 17 points the past four weeks, and while facing several top-tier defenses (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and new England) in that span was a plausible explanation, the O isn’t exactly humming as it hits January. Behind second-year ex-Wyo QB Josh Allen, who has progressed quickly on the NFL learning curve, the Bills did gain 401 ypg in their preceding three games. But the offense is not yet complete; even with an upgraded receiving corps that would benefit from offseason additions John Brown (72 catches TY) & Cole Beasley (67 receptions), Buffalo’s receivers are mostly smurfs, and Allen lacks a big target in the red zone. Often, the Bills’ best weapon is Allen running from the pocket, which he does well (510 YR and a team-best 9 rush TDs). A familiar Buffalo pattern was for the defense to bail out the offense until Allen & Co. would perform heroically enough to generate the winning points. Not the worst formula, and one that might work vs. Houston.
Though the teams didn’t meet this season, it’s worth noting the 2018 matchup, when McDermott’s gnarly defense gave Houston fits at NRG. Watson was effectively stifled, completing only 15 of 25 passes for 177 yards, with only 1 TDP and 2 picks. That the Texans prevailed 20-13 had more to do with offensive issues for the Bills, with then-rookie Allen completing just 10 of 17 for 84 YP before going out in the 3rd Q with an elbow injury. Still, the Bills led deep into the 4th Q, and only relinquished the lead in the final two minutes when tortured backup QB Nathan Peterman coughed up a pick-six to CB Johnathan Joseph, before tossing another interception for good measure to end the game.
To the present, the Texans’ D is hopeful to get impact DE J.J. Watt, out since late October with pectoral tear, back to active duty this week. Difficult to beat over the top, and ranking second in the league in passer rating (69.0) against downfield throws since the start of 2018, the Bills seem wel lconstructed to limit what Houston does best with Watson and Hopkins. Now, can we trust Allen & Co. enough to fire the deciding scoring shots?