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Archived: Week 4 Ugly Betting Underdogs


Sep 26, 2018 EST


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NFL Week 4 Ugly Dogs

Once again NFL Week 4 has plenty of offerings as far as totally unappealing bets that the general public will avoid at all costs. Which is the entire point of our weekly Ugly Dogs selections. If you want to win money betting on the NFL you must have the nerve to go where nobody else wants to travel. Time and again teams that the public avoids like the plague end up bringing home the bacon.

If you don’t believe me just ask Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the New England Patriots. Their loss at Detroit last Sunday night was a good Ugly Dog triumph and betting example.

Let’s now take a look at the teams nobody wants for Week 4! Note: These may or may not be actual betting picks we release to clients on gameday.

Check out the latest Week 4 NFL

Houston Texans +1.5 + at Indianapolis Colts

The Texans certainly have zero appeal with a record of 0-3 both straight up and against the spread. Their defense has been thrashed consistently to rank 19th in the NFL for points allowed. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has struggled with a mediocre 89.8 quarterback rating and is ailing with bad ribs. And all off a sudden head coach Bill O’Brien has gone from hero to zero.

Yet what is so great about Indianapolis? Their plodding offense ranks 28th overall and is not likely to be able to exploit the Texans. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck continues to struggle with a mediocre 84.8 rating. Houston can certainly come away with the cash in this one.

Arizona Cardinals +3.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

Certainly, the winless Arizona Cardinals are one of the most totally unappealing teams on the NFL board. In fact, they are an absolute train wreck. The Cardinals offense is downright offensive with rankings of dead last for total yards, passing, rushing, and scoring. Defensively Arizona ranks 25th overall. But the Seattle Seahawks are one of the sloppiest and most undisciplined teams in the NFL. They have won and covered just one game so far and are also struggling with an offense that ranks 27th overall in the NFL.

This game is a classic case of ignoring the metrics and simply opposing the public that is still enamored with Russell Wilson and Seattle’s name brand cache. The typical gambler will just not be able to bring himself to taking Arizona against Seattle. Thus, the Cardinal Call!

New York Giants +3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints

It is hard to imagine uglier dogs than the New York Giants. Not that this is anything new as Big Blue has been slumping for years. So far, the Giants are 1-2 both straight up and against the spread. The offense remains sluggish and far too dependent upon quarterback Eli Manning. As a result, New Orleans is the chalk despite the fact that they have allowed the most points in the NFL.

The Saints are a virtual one-man team with quarterback Drew Brees which is which helps explain why they have covered just one game so far on the year. Laying points on the road with a defenseless team is always dangerous and the Giants rate the call.

Buffalo Bills +10 at Green Bay Packers

If ever there was a great example of an ugly dog coming through it was the Buffalo Bills last week. Buffalo went into Minnesota as a 16.5-point dog and yet came away with a 27-6 upset win and cover. So now they head off to the not yet frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to face a one-dimensional Packers team that is scuffling in their own right. Green Bay has just one win and cover so far on the season and is still struggling to field a reliable defense. The Packers have become near totally dependent upon quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Without a serious rushing element defenses have teed off on the Packers signal caller and have sacked him 10 times.

Buffalo’s defense has been respectable and showed very well last week. Can lightning strike twice again? If nothing else the Bills are getting enough points to easily cover a loss. Buffalo is getting extra points due to the Green Bay mystique with the public. Nobody will want to take the Bills at Green Bay. Which is what makes them so valuable!

OUR 20-5 WINNING RUN in THE NFL IS MORE THAN JUST LUCK!
It’s about acquiring the Hidden Information that the general public does not have access to. And WE HAVE THAT INFO!

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