The NFL released its schedule on Thursday, which means it’s time to fully dive into the win totals for each team this season and evaluate how the schedule makers helped or hurt each team. We’ve known who each team would play since the end of the regular season because each team’s three strength of schedule games are determined by how teams finished in the regular season.

The Bills and Buccaneers have the highest win totals, each set at 11.5 wins on BetMGM. The Cowboys, Broncos, Packers, Chiefs, Chargers and Rams are all in the second tier at 10.5 wins.

On the other end, the Texas and Falcons have the lowest win totals at 4.5. The Panthers, Jets and Seahawks are all at 5.5 wins.

When evaluating the 2022 NFL schedule, we keep an eye on a few key situational things to see if a team gains or loses an advantage.

Here are some advantage spots:

• Playing a rookie head coach on Thursday Night Football
• Getting extra rest after playing on Thursday Night Football (mini-bye)
• Opponents playing back-to-back road games or three road games in a row

Here are some disadvantage spots:

• West coast team playing in the eastern time zone
• Opponent off a bye week or Thursday Night Football
• Back-to-back road games

Another thing to watch is how each team starts the schedule. If a team on the verge of becoming a contender begins with an easy schedule, that can provide momentum through the rest of the season.

NFL Win totals and odds of making playoffs

TEAM	WIN TOTAL	MAKE PLAYOFFS
Bills	11.5	-600
Buccaneers	11.5	-600
Cowboys	10.5	-275
Broncos	10.5	-150
Packers	10.5	-500
Chiefs	10.5	-225
Chargers	10.5	-150
Rams	10.5	-250
Cardinals	9.5	+100
Ravens	9.5	-130
Bengals	9.5	-135
Colts	9.5	-165
49ers	9.5	-225
Titans	9.5	-120
Raiders	8.5	+150
Dolphins	8.5	+135
Vikings	8.5	+100
Patriots	8.5	+135
Saints	8.5	+160
Eagles	8.5	-115
Giants	7.5	+225
Steelers	7.5	+300
Commanders	7.5	+195
Bears	6.5	+300
Lions	6.5	+500
Jaguars	6.5	+400
Panthers	5.5	+500
Jets	5.5	+700
Seahawks	5.5	+350
Falcons	4.5	+500
Texans	4.5	+1000

Expert Picks for NFL Win totals

New York Giants 7.5 — OVER 

The Giants aren’t a bad team — they have a talented RB in Saquon Barkley, they have a fresh, injury-free restart for possible WR stud Kenny Golladay, and they have a mobile QB in Daniel Jones who may finally have an OC/coach who understands his strengths, their defense is solid, they improved areas of need (OL, for instance) in the draft — but the question is: are they good? Because at 7.5, we’re talking about a near-.500 team, at 8-9. For the Giants to get to 8 wins, they’re going to have to steal at least, a win each from their NFC East opponents.

Philadelphia Eagles 8.5 — OVER

My second-over pick is also in the NFC East — the Eagles. And I’m more in on the Eagles than the Giants (so if I had $50 to play with, I’d have 35 on the Eagles and 15 on the Giants). This is a team better than eight wins. A.J. Brown is a Top 10 (maybe Top 7?) wide receiver in the NFL, and he’s going to transform the offense. I think betting on nine wins means you have faith in Jalen Hurts; I do. It’s a lot of it, especially with him getting a second year under Nick Sirianni/Steichen in this offense.

Buffalo Bills 11.5 — OVER

Yes, an aggressive over feels risky, and I had originally felt the Raiders (8.5) and Steelers (7.5) overs could be solid bets. I hesitated after doing some research for the same reason I like the Bills and even the Lions (6.5), but the Lions already have Vegas baking in a +3.5 win jump. Meanwhile, the Bills line is 0.5 over their 2021 win total (11).

That reason? Wins and losses in one-score games. Often, those normalize, and the outliers are the reason for regression concern. Well, the Raiders went 7-1 and the Steelers 6-1-1 in one-score games last year. If you regress those teams at or around .500, you lose three wins for the Raiders and two for the Steelers. That pushes their records to 7-9 and 7-7-1. I still expect better seasons for both teams, but now they’re riskier than assumed at a roster glance. The Lions went 1-5-1, but again, Vegas already boosted them, but the Bills surprisingly went 0-4. I can’t see Josh Allen, this loaded roster with no holes and another year of experience holding them back from 12+ wins.

Indianapolis Colts 9.5 — OVER 

My favorite OVER in Indianapolis (9.5). Last year, this was a nine-win team that ranked top 10 in offensive and defensive scoring, and they upgraded at key spots on both sides of the ball (QB Matt Ryan and CB Stephon Gilmore). Plus, the AFC South is one of the worst divisions in the league, and its best team last year (Tennessee Titans) took a huge offensive hit on draft day, losing A.J. Brown.

Chicago Bears 6.5 — UNDER 

Give me the UNDER on Bears wins (6.5). Did this team get better in the offseason? I definitely think the Lions did, that’s why I like the +150 odds at BetMGM for the Bears to finish last in the NFC North. QB Justin Fields is a major work in progress who lost his final seven starts of 2021. The offense finished sixth-worst in scoring and lost its alpha WR in Allen Robinson. They also lost Khalil Mack on defense, and did not have a first-round pick in the draft. There’s a better chance this team finishes with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft than winning seven games.