The World Cup starts Thursday and, like many fans in North America, I am excited to watch more soccer in the next month then I have in the last two years combined. Below is a brief betting guide for the big tournament and some key odds.
Unlike most North American sports, soccer is usually bet as a three-way wager: home team (designated for each World Cup match) win, tie, and away team win. This increases your odds (three outcomes so harder to predict) while decreasing your win rate (three choices of which only one comes in).
Betting ties are value plays. Like betting unders in the NFL, casual players loath to bet ties as they want to cheer for a team and action. Betting against the casual players provides a better risk return ratio. Furthermore, in the World Cup structure, teams can’t afford to lose to a group rival as they risk missing the knockout stage so early games are played cautiously: emphasis on not losing as opposed to winning.
Team least likely to win their first game: Panama (18-1) over Belgium
Team most likely to make the playoff: France (-2000)
Host Russia chances to make the playoff: -275 (over 70%).
Team most likely to win: Brazil (4-1).
Other strong contenders: Germany, Spain, France, and Argentina.
My best value bet to win it: Belgium 11-1. Why? The other strong contenders are the biggest name countries in soccer. The Sharp betting approach is finding value on no name brands. This isn’t a chocolate competition, it is soccer, and Belgium would appear over their head. If the betting markets have respect for them, you should too!
Long shots to consider betting to win it: Uruguay 28-1, Croatia 33-1, and Poland 66-1. Not soccer brand names, but three solid teams.
1) Betting the three-way moneyline
As the name entails, there are three options when betting the three-way moneyline:
Team A wins
Team B wins
Team A and Team B draw
Three-way moneyline results are graded solely on 90 minutes of play, also known as ‘Regular Time’. This includes any injury or stoppage time added by the referee’s discretion, but does not include overtimes or penalty shootouts.
For example, Argentina played Germany in the 2014 World Cup Final and the closing three-way moneyline was:
Germany +130
Argentina +255
Draw +230
Argentina and Germany were tied, 0-0, after 90 minutes of regulation, meaning the Draw +230 cashed. Betting on Germany (+130) or Argentina (+255) lost.
2) Betting the two-way moneyline
Another way of betting soccer is taking the two-way moneyline, which is offered in two simple ways: Double Chance and Draw No Bet. Both are graded solely on 90 minutes of regulation.
Double Chance means you’re betting on a specific team to win/draw, or either team to win. The three possible results are:
Team A wins or draws
Team B wins or draws
Team A wins or Team B wins
Here’s an example:
Germany/Draw -215
Argentina/Draw -165
Germany/Argentina -200
For each bet, you’re essentially just eliminating one of the results.
Draw No Bet is a wager that eliminates the prospect of the draw completely, so the only two potential results are:
Team A wins
Team B wins
Since the draw is taken out of the equation, these odds are usually inflated on the favorite.
For example:
Germany -200
Argentina +150
If the game ends in a draw in regulation, then all bets are refunded and considered “No Action”. This was the case in the 2014 World Cup Final since the game was tied after 90 minutes.
3) Betting goal lines (aka spreads)
Similar to betting the Two-Way Moneyline, the Goal Line is a type of wager that eliminates at least one outcome. Goal Lines are similar to Puck Lines in hockey and Point Spreads in football or basketball.
A Goal Line is typically -0.5 goals in soccer, but for games with big favorites, the Goal Line may be higher like -1.5 or -2.5.
Goal Line odds for a World Cup match between Argentina and Iran look like this:
Argentina -2.5 goals (+110)
Iran +2.5 goals (-120)
When dealing with goal lines or spreads, there’s always juice associated, just like an NFL spread or NBA spread.
If you bet on Argentina -2.5 goals, then to win the bet they must win by three goals or more. It you bet on Iran +2.5 goals, that means to win the bet Iran can win, draw or lose by one or two goals.
4) Betting totals
Totals in soccer work much differently than they do in other sports and can be shown in multiples of .25 goals. Since scoring is minimal compared to other sports, bookmakers will often set a total of 2.25 or 2.75.
For example, if you bet on the Over 2.25 goals, half your bet is placed on “Over 2” and the other half of your bet is placed on “Over 2.5”.
If the game ends, 1-1, then you lose your bet on Over 2.5, and are refunded your bet on Over 2. If the game ends with three goals or more, you would win both your bets.
Another example is if you bet on Under 2.75 goals. Half of your bet is placed on Under 2.5 goals and the other half of the bet is on Under 3 goals. If the game lands on three, you’d lose half your bet (Under 2.5) and refunded the other half (Under 3).
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